Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Miami Marlins 41%
San Diego Padres 59%
Locked before start
Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Hit Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Hit Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Hit Showing 3 of 80 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.552 (home 85-69) vs away 76-78 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Miami Marlins San Diego Padres
Pitching matchup
TP Tyler Phillips Appearance confirmed
NP Nick Pivetta Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 73°F· wind 9 mph, L To R· park factor runs 95· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 San Diego Padres home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% Miami Marlins away +1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres home -1.5· Run Line Miami Marlins away -1.5· Run Line games6 San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs Medium
season 4.5runs/G → park·weather·Opposing bullpen adjusted 4.0 pts, scoring distribution P(≥4)· simulation· stacking +10pp (meta-model over 414 past events)· cap applied
runs 8/4 Hit
72% San Diego Padres Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.552 (home 85-69) vs away 76-78 0.494, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 8/3 Hit
59% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Miami Marlins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.494 (away 76-78) vs home 85-69 0.552, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/9 Miss
41% Miami Marlins team runs Over 3.5· Runs batter77 Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xavier Edwards Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Javier Sanoja Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Heriberto Hernández Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xavier Edwards Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Javier Sanoja RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Otto Lopez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Stowers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Otto Lopez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Heriberto Hernández HR· HR 1+ Kyle Stowers HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja HR· HR 1+ Otto Lopez HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
