Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 12:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Miami Marlins 40%
San Diego Padres 60%
Locked before start
Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Hit Heriberto Hernández Hits 1+· hits 1+ 53% Hit Showing 3 of 15 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.555 (home 86-69) vs away 76-79 0.490, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Miami Marlins San Diego Padres
Pitching matchup
EP Eury Pérez Appearance confirmed
CM Casey Mize Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 74°F· wind 9 mph, L To R· park factor runs 95· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296· BvP 2/8 adjusted 0.294, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+5.3%p Park Runs 95 / HR 95 74°F 9 mph, L To R San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) Miami Marlins 11 OUT (Robby Snelling …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.283 (487PA) Statcast xBA 0.296 (actual 0.289, underrated 7p) BvP career 2/8 (.250, K 0·HR 1) → weight 4% Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 San Diego Padres home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
74% Miami Marlins away +1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres home -1.5· Run Line Miami Marlins away -1.5· Run Line batter77 FJ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296· BvP 2/8 adjusted 0.294, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
64% Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xavier Edwards Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Stowers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Stowers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Otto Lopez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Javier Sanoja Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Stowers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Heriberto Hernández Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Otto Lopez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Stowers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Javier Sanoja RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Javier Sanoja 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xavier Edwards 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Heriberto Hernández 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Heriberto Hernández Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xavier Edwards Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Otto Lopez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xavier Edwards RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xavier Edwards Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Heriberto Hernández HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja HR· HR 1+ Otto Lopez HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards HR· HR 1+ games6 San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs San Diego Padres Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.555 (home 86-69) vs away 76-79 0.490, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 7/7 Hit
60% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Miami Marlins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.490 (away 76-79) vs home 86-69 0.555, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 6/8 Miss
40% Miami Marlins team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
