Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 8:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Miami Marlins 41%
San Diego Padres 59%
Locked before start
Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Miss Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Hit Showing 3 of 80 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.558 (home 87-69) vs away 76-80 0.487, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Miami Marlins San Diego Padres
Pitching matchup
SA Sandy Alcantara Appearance confirmed
WB Walker Buehler Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 76°F· wind 9 mph, L To R· park factor runs 95· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 San Diego Padres home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% Miami Marlins away +1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres home -1.5· Run Line Miami Marlins away -1.5· Run Line games6 San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs Medium
season 4.5runs/G → park·weather·Opposing bullpen adjusted 4.0 pts, scoring distribution P(≥4)· simulation· stacking +10pp (meta-model over 414 past events)
runs 7/4 Hit
67% San Diego Padres Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.558 (home 87-69) vs away 76-80 0.487, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 11, matchup combination model
runs 7/4 Hit
59% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Miami Marlins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.487 (away 76-80) vs home 87-69 0.558, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/8 Miss
41% Miami Marlins team runs Over 3.5· Runs batter77 Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Stowers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Stowers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xavier Edwards Walks 1+· walks 1+ Otto Lopez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Heriberto Hernández Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Stowers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Heriberto Hernández 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Javier Sanoja Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Heriberto Hernández Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xavier Edwards Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Stowers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Javier Sanoja RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xavier Edwards 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Javier Sanoja 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Otto Lopez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Javier Sanoja Hits 2+· hits 2+ Heriberto Hernández Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Stowers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Otto Lopez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xavier Edwards Hits 2+· hits 2+ Javier Sanoja Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Heriberto Hernández HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Kyle Stowers HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ Javier Sanoja HR· HR 1+ Otto Lopez HR· HR 1+ Xavier Edwards HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
