Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles — Game center Final MLB
Sep 18 (Fri) · 11:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Milwaukee Brewers 59%
Baltimore Orioles 41%
Locked before start
Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Hit Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line 73% William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60% Hit Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.623 (away 96-58) vs home 75-79 0.487, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Milwaukee Brewers Baltimore Orioles
Pitching matchup
DM Dustin May Appearance confirmed
CP Cade Povich Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 80°F· wind 9 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 99· HR 97
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62%
Locked at publish
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.268 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255 adjusted 0.247, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.377
+13.1%p Park Runs 99 / HR 97 80°F 9 mph, In From LF Baltimore Orioles 11 OUT (Jordan Westburg …) Milwaukee Brewers 6 OUT (Andrew Vaughn …) last 15G AVG 0.377 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.216 (176PA) Statcast xBA 0.255 (actual 0.268, overrated 13p) Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% Baltimore Orioles home +1.5· Run Line Milwaukee Brewers away -1.5· Run Line Baltimore Orioles home -1.5· Run Line batter77 BT Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.268 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255 adjusted 0.247, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
62% Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Alonso Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Leody Taveras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Ward Hits 1+· hits 1+ Coby Mayo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Alonso Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Ward Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Alonso RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gunnar Henderson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Alonso 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gunnar Henderson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Coby Mayo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Ward 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Alonso Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Ward Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gunnar Henderson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Leody Taveras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Leody Taveras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Coby Mayo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Leody Taveras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Coby Mayo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gunnar Henderson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Alonso Hits 2+· hits 2+ Leody Taveras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Coby Mayo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Alonso HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Coby Mayo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Leody Taveras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gunnar Henderson HR· HR 1+ Coby Mayo HR· HR 1+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ Leody Taveras HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward HR· HR 1+ games6 Milwaukee Brewers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.623 (away 96-58) vs home 75-79 0.487, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 6/6 Hit
59% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Baltimore Orioles team runs Over 3.5· Runs Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Baltimore Orioles Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.487 (home 75-79) vs away 96-58 0.623, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 5/7 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
