Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 8:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Milwaukee Brewers 59%
Baltimore Orioles 41%
Locked before start
Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Miss Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line 73% William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Hit Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.626 (away 97-58) vs home 75-80 0.484, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Milwaukee Brewers Baltimore Orioles
Pitching matchup
RG Robert Gasser Appearance confirmed
TR Trevor Rogers Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 77°F· wind 7 mph, R To L· park factor runs 99· HR 97
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265· BvP 2/8 adjusted 0.313, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.304
+1.6%p Park Runs 99 / HR 97 77°F 7 mph, R To L Baltimore Orioles 11 OUT (Jordan Westburg …) Milwaukee Brewers 6 OUT (Andrew Vaughn …) last 15G AVG 0.304 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.333 (153PA) Statcast xBA 0.265 (actual 0.291, overrated 26p) BvP career 2/8 (.250, K 3·HR 0) → weight 4% Coby Mayo Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.6 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% Baltimore Orioles home +1.5· Run Line Milwaukee Brewers away -1.5· Run Line Baltimore Orioles home -1.5· Run Line batter77 JC Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265· BvP 2/8 adjusted 0.313, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
68% Coby Mayo Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Alonso Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Leody Taveras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Coby Mayo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Ward Hits 1+· hits 1+ Coby Mayo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Ward Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Alonso Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Pete Alonso RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Alonso 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Coby Mayo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gunnar Henderson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gunnar Henderson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Alonso Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Taylor Ward 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Coby Mayo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gunnar Henderson Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Leody Taveras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gunnar Henderson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Alonso Hits 2+· hits 2+ Coby Mayo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ Leody Taveras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Leody Taveras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Ward Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Coby Mayo HR· HR 1+ Leody Taveras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Alonso HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Leody Taveras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gunnar Henderson HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward Hits 2+· hits 2+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Leody Taveras HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward HR· HR 1+ games6 Milwaukee Brewers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.626 (away 97-58) vs home 75-80 0.484, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/1 Hit
59% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Baltimore Orioles team runs Over 3.5· Runs Baltimore Orioles Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.484 (home 75-80) vs away 97-58 0.626, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 0/2 Miss
41% Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
