Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 11:20 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Milwaukee Brewers 61%
Baltimore Orioles 39%
Locked before start
Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Miss Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Hit Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line 74% Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.628 (away 98-58) vs home 75-81 0.481, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Milwaukee Brewers Baltimore Orioles
Pitching matchup
JM Jacob Misiorowski Appearance confirmed
BY Brandon Young Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 81°F· wind 6 mph, Out To RF· park factor runs 99· HR 97
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.268 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255 adjusted 0.310, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.377
+13.1%p Park Runs 99 / HR 97 81°F 6 mph, Out To RF Baltimore Orioles 11 OUT (Jordan Westburg …) Milwaukee Brewers 6 OUT (Andrew Vaughn …) last 15G AVG 0.377 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.291 (406PA) Statcast xBA 0.255 (actual 0.268, overrated 13p) Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.6 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
74% Baltimore Orioles home +1.5· Run Line Milwaukee Brewers away -1.5· Run Line Baltimore Orioles home -1.5· Run Line batter77 BT Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.268 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255 adjusted 0.310, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
66% Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Pete Alonso Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Coby Mayo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Leody Taveras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Ward Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Ward Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Alonso Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Alonso Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Alonso RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Coby Mayo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gunnar Henderson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gunnar Henderson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Leody Taveras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Pete Alonso 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Coby Mayo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gunnar Henderson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Coby Mayo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Coby Mayo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Leody Taveras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Pete Alonso Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Gunnar Henderson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Alonso HR· HR 1+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Gunnar Henderson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Ward Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Ward 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Coby Mayo HR· HR 1+ Leody Taveras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Leody Taveras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Ward RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Coby Mayo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Leody Taveras Hits 2+· hits 2+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gunnar Henderson HR· HR 1+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ Leody Taveras HR· HR 1+ Taylor Ward HR· HR 1+ games6 Milwaukee Brewers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.628 (away 98-58) vs home 75-81 0.481, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/1 Hit
61% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Baltimore Orioles Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.481 (home 75-81) vs away 98-58 0.628, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 0/4 Miss
39% Baltimore Orioles team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
