Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies — Game center Final MLB
Sep 24 (Thu) · 10:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Milwaukee Brewers 54%
Philadelphia Phillies 46%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.629 (away 100-59) vs home 87-72 0.547, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies
Pitching matchup
SD Shane Drohan Appearance confirmed
AP Andrew Painter Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Overcast 66°F· wind 11 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 103· HR 110
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.268 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255 adjusted 0.310, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.377
+13.1%p Park Runs 103 / HR 110 66°F 11 mph, In From RF Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) Milwaukee Brewers 6 OUT (Andrew Vaughn …) last 15G AVG 0.377 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.291 (406PA) Statcast xBA 0.255 (actual 0.268, overrated 13p) Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 BT Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.268 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255 adjusted 0.310, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
70% Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Schwarber 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Schwarber RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Bohm Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryson Stott Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryce Harper RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryson Stott RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryson Stott Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trea Turner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryce Harper Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Bohm 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Marsh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Marsh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Bohm Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trea Turner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber HR· HR 1+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryce Harper Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 2+· hits 2+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Bryce Harper HR· HR 1+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Philadelphia Phillies home +1.5· Run Line Milwaukee Brewers away -1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies home -1.5· Run Line games6 Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Milwaukee Brewers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.629 (away 100-59) vs home 87-72 0.547, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/2 Hit
54% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Philadelphia Phillies Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.547 (home 87-72) vs away 100-59 0.629, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 1/6 Miss
46% Philadelphia Phillies team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
