Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates — Game center Final MLB
Sep 15 (Tue) · 10:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Milwaukee Brewers 58%
Pittsburgh Pirates 42%
Locked before start
Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Miss Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Miss William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.623 (away 94-57) vs home 75-76 0.497, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitching matchup
JM Jacob Misiorowski Appearance confirmed
LB Lake Bachar Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 79°F· wind 7 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 98· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.304
+1.6%p Park Runs 98 / HR 92 79°F 7 mph, Out To LF Pittsburgh Pirates 5 OUT (Mitch Keller …) Milwaukee Brewers 6 OUT (Andrew Vaughn …) last 15G AVG 0.304 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.274 (369PA) Statcast xBA 0.265 (actual 0.291, overrated 26p) Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 4.7 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Pittsburgh Pirates home +1.5· Run Line Milwaukee Brewers away -1.5· Run Line Pittsburgh Pirates home -1.5· Run Line batter84 JC Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
67% Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Lowe Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryan Reynolds Walks 1+· walks 1+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Horwitz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Lowe Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Lowe RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Lowe Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ryan O'Hearn RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Lowe 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryan Reynolds Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nick Gonzales Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nick Gonzales Walks 1+· walks 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryan Reynolds 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Horwitz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Mangum Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Mangum Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ryan O'Hearn 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Lowe Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Horwitz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryan Reynolds RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Horwitz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nick Gonzales 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Lowe HR· HR 1+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Mangum 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Mangum RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ryan O'Hearn HR· HR 1+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ Spencer Horwitz HR· HR 1+ Bryan Reynolds HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales HR· HR 1+ Jake Mangum HR· HR 1+ games6 Milwaukee Brewers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.623 (away 94-57) vs home 75-76 0.497, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/2 Hit
58% Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Pittsburgh Pirates Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.497 (home 75-76) vs away 94-57 0.623, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 1/6 Miss
42% Pittsburgh Pirates team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
