Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates — Game center Final MLB
Sep 16 (Wed) · 10:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Milwaukee Brewers 58%
Pittsburgh Pirates 42%
Locked before start
Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Hit Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Hit Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line 71% Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.625 (away 95-57) vs home 75-77 0.493, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitching matchup
LH Logan Henderson Appearance confirmed
JJ Jared Jones Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 83°F· wind 4 mph, Calm· park factor runs 98· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265· BvP 3/8 adjusted 0.274, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.304
+1.6%p Park Runs 98 / HR 92 83°F 4 mph, Calm Pittsburgh Pirates 5 OUT (Mitch Keller …) Milwaukee Brewers 6 OUT (Andrew Vaughn …) last 15G AVG 0.304 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.274 (369PA) Statcast xBA 0.265 (actual 0.291, overrated 26p) BvP career 3/8 (.375, K 2·HR 1) → weight 4% Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 4.7 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Pittsburgh Pirates home +1.5· Run Line Milwaukee Brewers away -1.5· Run Line Pittsburgh Pirates home -1.5· Run Line batter84 JC Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265· BvP 3/8 adjusted 0.274, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
65% Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Lowe Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Lowe RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Lowe Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryan Reynolds Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Lowe 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Horwitz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryan Reynolds Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryan Reynolds 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nick Gonzales Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Lowe Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Horwitz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Mangum Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nick Gonzales Walks 1+· walks 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Lowe Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryan Reynolds RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Lowe HR· HR 1+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Mangum Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Horwitz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Horwitz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Ryan O'Hearn HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nick Gonzales RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Mangum 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Mangum RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Bryan Reynolds HR· HR 1+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Spencer Horwitz HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales HR· HR 1+ Jake Mangum HR· HR 1+ games6 Milwaukee Brewers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.625 (away 95-57) vs home 75-77 0.493, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/5 Hit
58% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Pittsburgh Pirates Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.493 (home 75-77) vs away 95-57 0.625, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 4/6 Miss
42% Pittsburgh Pirates team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
