Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates — Game center Final MLB
Sep 17 (Thu) · 4:35 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Milwaukee Brewers 59%
Pittsburgh Pirates 41%
Locked before start
Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69% Miss Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Hit William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Miss Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.621 (away 95-58) vs home 76-77 0.497, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitching matchup
KH Kyle Harrison Appearance confirmed
WD Wilber Dotel Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 77°F· wind 5 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 98· HR 92
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.304
+1.6%p Park Runs 98 / HR 92 77°F 5 mph, Out To LF Pittsburgh Pirates 5 OUT (Mitch Keller …) Milwaukee Brewers 6 OUT (Andrew Vaughn …) last 15G AVG 0.304 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.274 (369PA) Statcast xBA 0.265 (actual 0.291, overrated 26p) William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 4.6 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
73% Pittsburgh Pirates home +1.5· Run Line Milwaukee Brewers away -1.5· Run Line Pittsburgh Pirates home -1.5· Run Line batter84 JC Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.291 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
69% William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Lowe Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryan Reynolds Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Lowe Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryan Reynolds Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Lowe RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryan Reynolds 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Lowe 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Horwitz Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ryan O'Hearn 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryan Reynolds RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Lowe Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nick Gonzales Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Mangum Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 2+· hits 2+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Horwitz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nick Gonzales Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Horwitz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Lowe Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Horwitz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Mangum RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Mangum 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nick Gonzales 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Mangum Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nick Gonzales RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Lowe HR· HR 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ryan O'Hearn HR· HR 1+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Bryan Reynolds HR· HR 1+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Spencer Horwitz HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales HR· HR 1+ Jake Mangum HR· HR 1+ games6 Milwaukee Brewers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.621 (away 95-58) vs home 76-77 0.497, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/8 Miss
59% Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Pittsburgh Pirates Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.497 (home 76-77) vs away 95-58 0.621, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 6, matchup combination model
runs 7/5 Hit
41% Pittsburgh Pirates team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
