Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres — Game center Final MLB
Oct 7 (Wed) · 1:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Milwaukee Brewers 95%
San Diego Padres 5%
Locked before start
Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line 97% Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Miss Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60% Hit Showing 3 of 93 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.667 (away 2-1) vs home 1-2 0.333, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Milwaukee Brewers San Diego Padres
Pitching matchup
DM Dustin May Appearance confirmed
NP Nick Pivetta Appearance confirmed
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Clear 82°F· wind 9 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 95· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 4.7 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
97% Milwaukee Brewers away -1.5· Run Line Medium
expected runs 4.7 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% San Diego Padres home +1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres home -1.5· Run Line games6 Milwaukee Brewers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.667 (away 2-1) vs home 1-2 0.333, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/5 Miss
95% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs San Diego Padres team runs Over 4.5· Runs San Diego Padres Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.333 (home 1-2) vs away 2-1 0.667, Home advantage +4%, matchup combination model
runs 4/4 Hit
5% batter84 Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
