Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres — Game center Final MLB
Oct 8 (Thu) · 2:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Milwaukee Brewers 78%
San Diego Padres 22%
Locked before start
Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line 86% Milwaukee Brewers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win 78% Hit Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.750 (away 3-1) vs home 1-3 0.250, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Milwaukee Brewers San Diego Padres
Pitching matchup
RG Robert Gasser Appearance confirmed
WB Walker Buehler Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 81°F· wind 6 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 95· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296 adjusted 0.316, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+5.3%p Park Runs 95 / HR 95 81°F 6 mph, In From LF San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) Milwaukee Brewers 5 OUT (Brandon Woodruff …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.309 (139PA) Statcast xBA 0.296 (actual 0.289, underrated 7p) Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.4 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
86% Milwaukee Brewers away -1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres home +1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres home -1.5· Run Line games6 Milwaukee Brewers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.750 (away 3-1) vs home 1-3 0.250, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/2 Hit
78% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals San Diego Padres Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.250 (home 1-3) vs away 3-1 0.750, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 1/4 Miss
22% batter84 FJ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296 adjusted 0.316, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
63% Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
