Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres — Game center Scheduled MLB
VS
Oct 7 (Wed) · 1:30 AM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish Milwaukee Brewers 95%
San Diego Padres 5%
Behind the probability season win% 1.000 (away 2-0) vs home 0-2 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Pregame home win ESPN 59% · Spolytics 5% −54.2%p External figure: ESPN Matchup Predictor. Retrieved 2026-10-06T08:35:07.495Z; forecast publication time unavailable. Shown for reference; not an input to our model.
Head to head Milwaukee Brewers San Diego Padres
Pitching matchup
DM Dustin May Probable · subject to change
NP Nick Pivetta Probable · subject to change
Recent form · newest first
park factor runs 95· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Milwaukee Brewers away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
97% Milwaukee Brewers away -1.5· Run Line High
expected runs 4.3 vs 3.7 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% San Diego Padres home +1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres home -1.5· Run Line games6 Milwaukee Brewers Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 1.000 (away 2-0) vs home 0-2 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
95% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals San Diego Padres team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Milwaukee Brewers team runs Over 4.5· Runs San Diego Padres Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.500 (home 0-2) vs away 2-0 1.000, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 5, matchup combination model
5% batter84 Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brice Turang Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Chourio Hits 1+· hits 1+ William Contreras Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Christian Yelich Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Bauers Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brice Turang Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brice Turang 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Garrett Mitchell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Chourio RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Bauers RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Chourio 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Bauers 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras Walks 1+· walks 1+ William Contreras Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brice Turang RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras RBI 1+· RBI 1+ William Contreras 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Bauers Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Garrett Mitchell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Garrett Mitchell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Christian Yelich 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Christian Yelich Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Chourio Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brice Turang Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Chourio Hits 2+· hits 2+ William Contreras Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Garrett Mitchell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Bauers Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Christian Yelich Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Jackson Chourio HR· HR 1+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Jake Bauers HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Brice Turang HR· HR 1+ William Contreras HR· HR 1+ Christian Yelich HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Garrett Mitchell HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
