Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels — Game center Final MLB
Sep 18 (Fri) · 1:38 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Minnesota Twins 55%
Los Angeles Angels 45%
Locked before start
Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60% Hit Luke Keaschall Hits 1+· hits 1+ 55% Hit Minnesota Twins away +1.5· Run Line 70% Showing 3 of 80 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.464 (away 71-82) vs home 59-94 0.386, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Angels
Pitching matchup
TB Taj Bradley Appearance confirmed
WU Walbert Ureña Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 75°F· wind 9 mph, Varies· park factor runs 99· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.216· BvP 1/12 adjusted 0.202, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.208
-3.7%p Park Runs 99 / HR 103 75°F 9 mph, Varies Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) Minnesota Twins 10 OUT (Walker Jenkins …) last 15G AVG 0.208 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.221 (447PA) Statcast xBA 0.216 (actual 0.239, overrated 23p) BvP career 1/12 (.083, K 6·HR 1) → weight 6% Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Minnesota Twins away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Los Angeles Angels home +1.5· Run Line Minnesota Twins away -1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels home -1.5· Run Line batter70 ZN Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Medium
Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.216· BvP 1/12 adjusted 0.202, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
62% Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 1+· hits 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 1+· hits 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach Neto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luke Keaschall Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jo Adell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kody Clemens Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vaughn Grissom RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mike Trout RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vaughn Grissom Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Bell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Bell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vaughn Grissom 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Bell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens Walks 1+· walks 1+ Oswald Peraza Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brooks Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Royce Lewis 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Oswald Peraza RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Oswald Peraza 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vaughn Grissom Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Royce Lewis Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Bell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach Neto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brooks Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luke Keaschall RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mike Trout Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Bell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jo Adell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach Neto HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mike Trout HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell HR· HR 1+ Kody Clemens HR· HR 1+ Brooks Lee HR· HR 1+ Vaughn Grissom HR· HR 1+ Josh Bell HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall HR· HR 1+ games6 Los Angeles Angels team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Minnesota Twins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.464 (away 71-82) vs home 59-94 0.386, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/6 Miss
55% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.386 (home 59-94) vs away 71-82 0.464, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 5/5 Hit
45% Minnesota Twins team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
