Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 1:38 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Minnesota Twins 54%
Los Angeles Angels 46%
Locked before start
Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73% Miss Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Miss Showing 3 of 80 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.468 (away 72-82) vs home 59-95 0.383, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Angels
Pitching matchup
CP Connor Prielipp Appearance confirmed
GR Grayson Rodriguez Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 75°F· wind 8 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 99· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73%
Locked at publish
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.257 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.254
+1.8%p Park Runs 99 / HR 103 75°F 8 mph, Out To CF Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) Minnesota Twins 10 OUT (Walker Jenkins …) last 15G AVG 0.254 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.320 (172PA) Statcast xBA 0.257 (actual 0.240, underrated 17p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.216 adjusted 0.256, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.208
-3.7%p Park Runs 99 / HR 103 75°F 8 mph, Out To CF Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) Minnesota Twins 10 OUT (Walker Jenkins …) last 15G AVG 0.208 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.285 (172PA) Statcast xBA 0.216 (actual 0.239, overrated 23p) Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter70 JA Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.257 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
73% ZN Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.216 adjusted 0.256, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
71% Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 1+· hits 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jo Adell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jo Adell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mike Trout Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach Neto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brooks Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mike Trout Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vaughn Grissom RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brooks Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Bell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Bell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luke Keaschall 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Bell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Royce Lewis 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Oswald Peraza RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Oswald Peraza 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach Neto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Bell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Royce Lewis Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mike Trout Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Bell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brooks Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vaughn Grissom Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kody Clemens HR· HR 1+ Zach Neto HR· HR 1+ Brooks Lee HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mike Trout HR· HR 1+ Josh Bell HR· HR 1+ Vaughn Grissom HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Minnesota Twins away +1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels home +1.5· Run Line Minnesota Twins away -1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels home -1.5· Run Line games6 Los Angeles Angels team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Minnesota Twins team runs Over 4.5· Runs Minnesota Twins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.468 (away 72-82) vs home 59-95 0.383, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/1 Hit
54% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.383 (home 59-95) vs away 72-82 0.468, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 0/4 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
