Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 1:38 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Minnesota Twins 54%
Los Angeles Angels 46%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.465 (away 72-83) vs home 60-95 0.387, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Angels
Pitching matchup
JR Joe Ryan Appearance confirmed
RD Reid Detmers Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 77°F· wind 6 mph, R To L· park factor runs 99· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66%
Model probability
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.257 adjusted 0.221, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.254
+1.8%p Park Runs 99 / HR 103 77°F 6 mph, R To L Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) Minnesota Twins 10 OUT (Walker Jenkins …) last 15G AVG 0.254 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.209 (431PA) Statcast xBA 0.257 (actual 0.240, underrated 17p) Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Minnesota Twins away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Los Angeles Angels home +1.5· Run Line Minnesota Twins away -1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels home -1.5· Run Line batter70 JA Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.257 adjusted 0.221, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
66% Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 1+· hits 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach Neto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mike Trout 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mike Trout Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jo Adell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vaughn Grissom Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mike Trout RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kody Clemens Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Bell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Bell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kody Clemens 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luke Keaschall Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brooks Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vaughn Grissom 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Oswald Peraza Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Royce Lewis RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Bell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luke Keaschall Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Oswald Peraza RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Royce Lewis 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Oswald Peraza 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Bell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luke Keaschall RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mike Trout Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kody Clemens Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Bell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brooks Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens Hits 2+· hits 2+ Vaughn Grissom Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brooks Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach Neto HR· HR 1+ Kody Clemens HR· HR 1+ Mike Trout HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Bell HR· HR 1+ Brooks Lee HR· HR 1+ Vaughn Grissom HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Oswald Peraza HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall HR· HR 1+ games6 Los Angeles Angels team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Minnesota Twins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.465 (away 72-83) vs home 60-95 0.387, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 5/7 Miss
54% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.387 (home 60-95) vs away 72-83 0.465, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 6/6 Hit
46% Minnesota Twins team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
