Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 8:07 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Minnesota Twins 54%
Los Angeles Angels 46%
Locked before start
Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ 57% Hit Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+ 58% Hit Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60% Miss Showing 3 of 80 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.468 (away 73-83) vs home 60-96 0.385, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Angels
Pitching matchup
DK Dean Kremer Appearance confirmed
RJ Ryan Johnson Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Sunny 80°F· wind 4 mph, R To L· park factor runs 99· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Locked at publish
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.257 adjusted 0.221, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.254
+1.8%p Park Runs 99 / HR 103 80°F 4 mph, R To L Los Angeles Angels 10 OUT (Ben Joyce …) Minnesota Twins 10 OUT (Walker Jenkins …) last 15G AVG 0.254 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.209 (431PA) Statcast xBA 0.257 (actual 0.240, underrated 17p) Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter70 JA Jo Adell Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.257 adjusted 0.221, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
69% Vaughn Grissom Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach Neto Hits 1+· hits 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mike Trout Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 1+· hits 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 1+· hits 1+ Zach Neto Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mike Trout 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach Neto RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vaughn Grissom Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Vaughn Grissom RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Oswald Peraza Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kody Clemens 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jo Adell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Vaughn Grissom 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Oswald Peraza 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Oswald Peraza RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Bell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Zach Neto Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brooks Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brooks Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Bell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jo Adell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brooks Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Vaughn Grissom Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luke Keaschall Walks 1+· walks 1+ Zach Neto Walks 1+· walks 1+ Royce Lewis Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mike Trout Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Bell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luke Keaschall Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Bell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Oswald Peraza Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brooks Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kody Clemens Walks 1+· walks 1+ Vaughn Grissom Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Bell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brooks Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Oswald Peraza Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach Neto HR· HR 1+ Mike Trout HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kody Clemens HR· HR 1+ Jo Adell HR· HR 1+ Vaughn Grissom HR· HR 1+ Brooks Lee HR· HR 1+ Josh Bell HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis HR· HR 1+ Oswald Peraza HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Minnesota Twins away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Los Angeles Angels home +1.5· Run Line Minnesota Twins away -1.5· Run Line Los Angeles Angels home -1.5· Run Line games6 Los Angeles Angels team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Minnesota Twins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.468 (away 73-83) vs home 60-96 0.385, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 8/1 Hit
54% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Los Angeles Angels Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.385 (home 60-96) vs away 73-83 0.468, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 0/9 Miss
46% Minnesota Twins team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
