Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants — Game center Final MLB
Sep 22 (Tue) · 1:45 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Minnesota Twins 52%
San Francisco Giants 48%
Locked before start
Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Miss Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Miss Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Showing 3 of 59 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.465 (away 73-84) vs home 65-92 0.414, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Minnesota Twins San Francisco Giants
Pitching matchup
ZM Zebby Matthews Appearance confirmed
BT Blade Tidwell Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 62°F· wind 15 mph, Varies· park factor runs 95· HR 88
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Locked at publish
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.288 adjusted 0.281, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.222
-6.5%p Park Runs 95 / HR 88 62°F 15 mph, Varies San Francisco Giants 22 OUT (Keaton Winn …) Minnesota Twins 10 OUT (Walker Jenkins …) last 15G AVG 0.222 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.292 (370PA) Statcast xBA 0.288 (actual 0.276, underrated 12p) Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Minnesota Twins away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
68% San Francisco Giants home +1.5· Run Line Minnesota Twins away -1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants home -1.5· Run Line batter49 JL Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.288 adjusted 0.281, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
67% Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 1+· hits 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brooks Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luis Arraez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jung Hoo Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brooks Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jung Hoo Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kody Clemens RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Bell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kody Clemens 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luis Arraez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Bell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luke Keaschall Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Bell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Bell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Royce Lewis Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luke Keaschall Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luis Arraez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kody Clemens Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brooks Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luis Arraez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Bell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jung Hoo Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens HR· HR 1+ Brooks Lee HR· HR 1+ Josh Bell HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez HR· HR 1+ games6 San Francisco Giants team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Minnesota Twins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.465 (away 73-84) vs home 65-92 0.414, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/6 Miss
52% San Francisco Giants Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.414 (home 65-92) vs away 73-84 0.465, Home advantage +4%· injury home 22 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 5/3 Hit
48% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Minnesota Twins team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
