Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants — Game center Final MLB
Sep 23 (Wed) · 1:45 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Minnesota Twins 52%
San Francisco Giants 48%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.468 (away 74-84) vs home 65-93 0.411, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Minnesota Twins San Francisco Giants
Pitching matchup
TB Taj Bradley Appearance confirmed
AM Anthony Molina Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 61°F· wind 8 mph, Out To CF· park factor runs 95· HR 88
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65%
Model probability
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.288 adjusted 0.281, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.222
-6.5%p Park Runs 95 / HR 88 61°F 8 mph, Out To CF San Francisco Giants 22 OUT (Keaton Winn …) Minnesota Twins 10 OUT (Walker Jenkins …) last 15G AVG 0.222 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.292 (370PA) Statcast xBA 0.288 (actual 0.276, underrated 12p) Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Minnesota Twins away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
68% San Francisco Giants home +1.5· Run Line Minnesota Twins away -1.5· Run Line San Francisco Giants home -1.5· Run Line batter49 JL Jung Hoo Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.288 adjusted 0.281, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
65% Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 1+· hits 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brooks Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jung Hoo Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luis Arraez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jung Hoo Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Bell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brooks Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brooks Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kody Clemens 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luis Arraez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Bell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jung Hoo Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Bell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Royce Lewis 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luke Keaschall Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luis Arraez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luke Keaschall RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luis Arraez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Bell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jung Hoo Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luis Arraez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Bell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luke Keaschall Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brooks Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens HR· HR 1+ Brooks Lee HR· HR 1+ Josh Bell HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis HR· HR 1+ Jung Hoo Lee HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall HR· HR 1+ Luis Arraez HR· HR 1+ games6 San Francisco Giants team runs Over 3.5· Runs Minnesota Twins Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.468 (away 74-84) vs home 65-93 0.411, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/3 Hit
52% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals San Francisco Giants Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.411 (home 65-93) vs away 74-84 0.468, Home advantage +4%· injury home 22 / away 10, matchup combination model
runs 2/4 Miss
48% Minnesota Twins team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
