New York Mets at New York Yankees — Game center Final MLB
Sep 13 (Sun) · 5:35 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast New York Mets 36%
New York Yankees 64%
Locked before start
New York Yankees home +1.5· Run Line 76% Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Hit Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Miss Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.577 (home 86-63) vs away 69-80 0.463, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 8, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
New York Mets New York Yankees
Pitching matchup
CS Christian Scott Appearance confirmed
CS Cam Schlittler Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Rain 72°F· wind 5 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 102· HR 112
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267 adjusted 0.289, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+8.3%p Park Runs 102 / HR 112 72°F 5 mph, In From LF New York Yankees 5 OUT (Aaron Judge …) New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.273 (374PA) Statcast xBA 0.267 (actual 0.264, underrated 3p) Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 New York Yankees home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
76% New York Mets away +1.5· Run Line New York Yankees home -1.5· Run Line New York Mets away -1.5· Run Line games6 New York Yankees Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.577 (home 86-63) vs away 69-80 0.463, Home advantage +4%· injury home 5 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 2/1 Hit
64% New York Mets team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals New York Yankees team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals New York Mets Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.463 (away 69-80) vs home 86-63 0.577, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 0/3 Miss
36% batter84 BR Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267 adjusted 0.289, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
63% Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carson Benge Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Walks 1+· walks 1+ Marcus Semien Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ A.J. Ewing Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice HR· HR 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carson Benge 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brett Baty Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brett Baty RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carson Benge RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. HR· HR 1+ Trent Grisham HR· HR 1+ Francisco Lindor HR· HR 1+ Cody Bellinger HR· HR 1+ José Caballero HR· HR 1+ Carson Benge HR· HR 1+ Bo Bichette HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien HR· HR 1+ Brett Baty HR· HR 1+ A.J. Ewing HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
