New York Mets at Texas Rangers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 23 (Wed) · 12:05 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate New York Mets 42%
Texas Rangers 58%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.497 (home 78-79) vs away 72-85 0.459, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 8, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
New York Mets Texas Rangers
Pitching matchup
SM Sean Manaea Appearance confirmed
MG MacKenzie Gore Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 74°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.282 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.279 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.371
+10.7%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 74°F 0 mph, None Texas Rangers 11 OUT (Corey Seager …) New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) last 15G AVG 0.371 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.279 (172PA) Statcast xBA 0.279 (actual 0.282, overrated 3p) Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Burger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Texas Rangers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% New York Mets away +1.5· Run Line Texas Rangers home -1.5· Run Line New York Mets away -1.5· Run Line batter77 CB Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.282 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.279 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
69% Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Burger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 1+· hits 1+ Evan Carter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Nimmo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Francisco Lindor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Francisco Lindor Walks 1+· walks 1+ A.J. Ewing Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Walks 1+· walks 1+ Francisco Lindor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford Walks 1+· walks 1+ A.J. Ewing 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Francisco Lindor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Wyatt Langford Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carson Benge Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bo Bichette RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carson Benge Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wyatt Langford 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Nimmo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Marcus Semien Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brett Baty Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Evan Carter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brett Baty Hits 2+· hits 2+ Marcus Semien Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger HR· HR 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Wyatt Langford Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor HR· HR 1+ Wyatt Langford HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran HR· HR 1+ Carson Benge HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien HR· HR 1+ Bo Bichette HR· HR 1+ A.J. Ewing HR· HR 1+ Brett Baty HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter HR· HR 1+ games6 New York Mets team runs Over 3.5· Runs Texas Rangers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Texas Rangers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.497 (home 78-79) vs away 72-85 0.459, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 3/7 Miss
58% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals New York Mets Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.459 (away 72-85) vs home 78-79 0.497, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 6/4 Hit
42% strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
