New York Mets at Texas Rangers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 24 (Thu) · 12:05 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate New York Mets 43%
Texas Rangers 57%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.494 (home 78-80) vs away 73-85 0.462, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 8, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
New York Mets Texas Rangers
Pitching matchup
NM Nolan McLean Appearance confirmed
CB Cody Bradford Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 74°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.282 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.279 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.371
+10.7%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 74°F 0 mph, None Texas Rangers 11 OUT (Corey Seager …) New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) last 15G AVG 0.371 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.279 (172PA) Statcast xBA 0.279 (actual 0.282, overrated 3p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.280 adjusted 0.255, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.215
-5.4%p Statcast xBA
0.280 (actual 0.260)
+0.8%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 74°F 0 mph, None Texas Rangers 11 OUT (Corey Seager …) New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) last 15G AVG 0.215 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.257 (179PA) Statcast xBA 0.280 (actual 0.260, underrated 20p) A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 CB Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.282 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.279 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
73% BB Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.280 adjusted 0.255, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
70% A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Burger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Evan Carter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carson Benge Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bo Bichette Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carson Benge Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carson Benge 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Francisco Lindor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ A.J. Ewing 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Evan Carter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 2+· hits 2+ Marcus Semien 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Marcus Semien RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Francisco Lindor Walks 1+· walks 1+ A.J. Ewing Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wyatt Langford Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Nimmo Walks 1+· walks 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Nimmo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Evan Carter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty Hits 2+· hits 2+ Marcus Semien Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carson Benge Walks 1+· walks 1+ Marcus Semien Walks 1+· walks 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bo Bichette Walks 1+· walks 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger HR· HR 1+ Wyatt Langford HR· HR 1+ Carson Benge HR· HR 1+ Bo Bichette HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Duran HR· HR 1+ A.J. Ewing HR· HR 1+ Brett Baty HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Texas Rangers home +1.5· Run Line New York Mets away +1.5· Run Line Texas Rangers home -1.5· Run Line New York Mets away -1.5· Run Line games6 New York Mets team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Texas Rangers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.494 (home 78-80) vs away 73-85 0.462, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 2/8 Miss
57% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals New York Mets Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.462 (away 73-85) vs home 78-80 0.494, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/3 Hit
43% Texas Rangers team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
