New York Mets at Texas Rangers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 24 (Thu) · 6:35 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate New York Mets 42%
Texas Rangers 58%
Locked before start
Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60% Hit Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ 50% Miss Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ 58% Miss Showing 3 of 85 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.497 (home 79-80) vs away 73-86 0.459, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 8, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
New York Mets Texas Rangers
Pitching matchup
ZT Zac Thornton Appearance confirmed
KR Kumar Rocker Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 74°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 103· HR 104
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.252 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255 adjusted 0.253, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.235
-2.0%p Park Runs 103 / HR 104 74°F 0 mph, None Texas Rangers 11 OUT (Corey Seager …) New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) last 15G AVG 0.235 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.257 (315PA) Statcast xBA 0.255 (actual 0.252, underrated 3p) Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Texas Rangers home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% New York Mets away +1.5· Run Line Texas Rangers home -1.5· Run Line New York Mets away -1.5· Run Line batter77 AE A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.252 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.255 adjusted 0.253, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
61% Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 1+· hits 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Burger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Evan Carter Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carson Benge Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bo Bichette Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Burger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Francisco Lindor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ezequiel Duran RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Duran 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ A.J. Ewing Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ A.J. Ewing 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Burger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Wyatt Langford RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford Walks 1+· walks 1+ Marcus Semien Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Nimmo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Duran Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Burger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Evan Carter Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Walks 1+· walks 1+ Marcus Semien Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Nimmo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carson Benge Walks 1+· walks 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carson Benge Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Nimmo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bo Bichette Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Wyatt Langford Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Nimmo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Duran Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Marcus Semien Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Burger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Evan Carter Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor HR· HR 1+ Jake Burger HR· HR 1+ Wyatt Langford HR· HR 1+ Carson Benge HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Duran HR· HR 1+ Bo Bichette HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien HR· HR 1+ Brandon Nimmo HR· HR 1+ A.J. Ewing HR· HR 1+ Brett Baty HR· HR 1+ Evan Carter HR· HR 1+ games6 Texas Rangers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.497 (home 79-80) vs away 73-86 0.459, Home advantage +4%· injury home 11 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 3/2 Hit
58% New York Mets team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Texas Rangers team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals New York Mets Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.459 (away 73-86) vs home 79-80 0.497, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 1/4 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
