New York Mets at Washington Nationals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 25 (Fri) · 10:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate New York Mets 44%
Washington Nationals 56%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.475 (home 76-84) vs away 73-87 0.456, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 8, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
New York Mets Washington Nationals
Pitching matchup
JY Jefry Yan Appearance confirmed
AA Andrew Alvarez Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 73°F· wind 5 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 100· HR 101
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.282 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.279 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.371
+10.7%p Park Runs 100 / HR 101 73°F 5 mph, In From CF Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) last 15G AVG 0.371 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.279 (172PA) Statcast xBA 0.279 (actual 0.282, overrated 3p) Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jacob Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 CB Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.282 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.279 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
70% Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jacob Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 1+· hits 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Daylen Lile Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dylan Crews Hits 1+· hits 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ James Wood Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 1+· hits 1+ James Wood Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nasim Nuñez Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Daylen Lile 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Francisco Lindor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ CJ Abrams Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor Walks 1+· walks 1+ A.J. Ewing Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty Walks 1+· walks 1+ James Wood 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ James Wood RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dylan Crews RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jacob Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Francisco Lindor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Daylen Lile Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ A.J. Ewing 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carson Benge RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jacob Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ James Wood Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dylan Crews 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jacob Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Daylen Lile RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Marcus Semien RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dylan Crews Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Francisco Lindor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ A.J. Ewing Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Daylen Lile Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jacob Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dylan Crews Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nasim Nuñez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jacob Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Daylen Lile Hits 2+· hits 2+ A.J. Ewing Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dylan Crews Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brett Baty Hits 2+· hits 2+ James Wood Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 2+· hits 2+ James Wood HR· HR 1+ Francisco Lindor HR· HR 1+ Daylen Lile HR· HR 1+ Dylan Crews HR· HR 1+ Carson Benge HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien HR· HR 1+ Bo Bichette HR· HR 1+ Jacob Young HR· HR 1+ A.J. Ewing HR· HR 1+ Brett Baty HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Washington Nationals home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% New York Mets away +1.5· Run Line Washington Nationals home -1.5· Run Line New York Mets away -1.5· Run Line games6 Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals New York Mets team runs Over 4.5· Runs Washington Nationals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.475 (home 76-84) vs away 73-87 0.456, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 7/7 Hit
56% Washington Nationals team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals New York Mets Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.456 (away 73-87) vs home 76-84 0.475, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 6/8 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
