New York Mets at Washington Nationals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 4:35 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate New York Mets 45%
Washington Nationals 55%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.472 (home 76-85) vs away 74-87 0.460, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 8, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
New York Mets Washington Nationals
Pitching matchup
JT Jonah Tong Appearance confirmed
CE Connelly Early Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Overcast 67°F· wind 16 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 100· HR 101
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70%
Model probability
hits 3/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.282 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.279 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.371
+10.7%p Park Runs 100 / HR 101 67°F 16 mph, In From LF Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) last 15G AVG 0.371 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.279 (172PA) Statcast xBA 0.279 (actual 0.282, overrated 3p) Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 CB Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.282 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.279 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 3/1 Hit
70% Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ Daylen Lile Hits 1+· hits 1+ James Wood Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jacob Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dylan Crews Hits 1+· hits 1+ James Wood Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carson Benge Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nasim Nuñez Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams Walks 1+· walks 1+ Francisco Lindor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carson Benge 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Francisco Lindor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bo Bichette Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bo Bichette 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Francisco Lindor Walks 1+· walks 1+ A.J. Ewing Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Marcus Semien RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ CJ Abrams Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty RBI 1+· RBI 1+ CJ Abrams 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Daylen Lile 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carson Benge Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ James Wood RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Daylen Lile Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ James Wood Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ James Wood 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jacob Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Daylen Lile RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dylan Crews RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bo Bichette Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 2+· hits 2+ Daylen Lile Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jacob Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jacob Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dylan Crews 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dylan Crews Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jacob Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dylan Crews Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nasim Nuñez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams Hits 2+· hits 2+ Daylen Lile Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brett Baty Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ James Wood Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor HR· HR 1+ Jacob Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carson Benge HR· HR 1+ Dylan Crews Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 2+· hits 2+ James Wood HR· HR 1+ Bo Bichette HR· HR 1+ A.J. Ewing HR· HR 1+ Daylen Lile HR· HR 1+ Brett Baty HR· HR 1+ Dylan Crews HR· HR 1+ Jacob Young HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Washington Nationals home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% New York Mets away +1.5· Run Line Washington Nationals home -1.5· Run Line New York Mets away -1.5· Run Line games6 New York Mets team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Washington Nationals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.472 (home 76-85) vs away 74-87 0.460, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 1/8 Miss
55% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals New York Mets Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.460 (away 74-87) vs home 76-85 0.472, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/2 Hit
45% Washington Nationals team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
