New York Mets at Washington Nationals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 5:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate New York Mets 44%
Washington Nationals 56%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.475 (home 77-85) vs away 74-88 0.457, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 8, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
New York Mets Washington Nationals
Pitching matchup
SM Sean Manaea Appearance confirmed
DH DJ Herz Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Rain 62°F· wind 14 mph, L To R· park factor runs 100· HR 101
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 77%
Model probability
hits 3/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.282 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.279 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.371
+10.7%p Park Runs 100 / HR 101 62°F 14 mph, L To R Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) last 15G AVG 0.371 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.279 (172PA) Statcast xBA 0.279 (actual 0.282, overrated 3p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 76%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.280 adjusted 0.255, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.215
-5.4%p Statcast xBA
0.280 (actual 0.260)
+0.8%p Park Runs 100 / HR 101 62°F 14 mph, L To R Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) last 15G AVG 0.215 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.257 (179PA) Statcast xBA 0.280 (actual 0.260, underrated 20p) Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 CB Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.282 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.279 adjusted 0.299, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 3/1 Hit
77% BB Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.280 adjusted 0.255, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
76% Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ James Wood Hits 1+· hits 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 1+· hits 1+ Daylen Lile Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jacob Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dylan Crews Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carson Benge Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carson Benge 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carson Benge Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carson Benge RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Marcus Semien RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brett Baty RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brett Baty 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette RBI 1+· RBI 1+ James Wood Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ A.J. Ewing Walks 1+· walks 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 2+· hits 2+ Marcus Semien Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ James Wood Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ CJ Abrams RBI 1+· RBI 1+ CJ Abrams 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ James Wood RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Daylen Lile 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Daylen Lile Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dylan Crews RBI 1+· RBI 1+ James Wood 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dylan Crews Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brett Baty Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dylan Crews 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jacob Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jacob Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jacob Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nasim Nuñez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Daylen Lile RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bo Bichette Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nasim Nuñez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor HR· HR 1+ James Wood Hits 2+· hits 2+ Daylen Lile Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jacob Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jacob Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dylan Crews Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge HR· HR 1+ Dylan Crews Walks 1+· walks 1+ Daylen Lile Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien HR· HR 1+ James Wood HR· HR 1+ Bo Bichette HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 2+· hits 2+ A.J. Ewing HR· HR 1+ Daylen Lile HR· HR 1+ Dylan Crews HR· HR 1+ Brett Baty HR· HR 1+ Jacob Young HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Washington Nationals home +1.5· Run Line New York Mets away +1.5· Run Line Washington Nationals home -1.5· Run Line New York Mets away -1.5· Run Line games6 Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Washington Nationals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.475 (home 77-85) vs away 74-88 0.457, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 6/5 Hit
56% New York Mets team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals New York Mets Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.457 (away 74-88) vs home 77-85 0.475, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/7 Miss
44% Washington Nationals team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
