New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 1:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate New York Yankees 53%
Arizona Diamondbacks 49%
Locked before start
Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Hit Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ 59% Hit Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ 52% Hit Showing 3 of 23 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.582 (away 89-64) vs home 80-74 0.519, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
New York Yankees Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching matchup
GC Gerrit Cole Appearance confirmed
ER Eduardo Rodriguez Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 74°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 102· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 New York Yankees away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
68% Arizona Diamondbacks home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
65% New York Yankees away -1.5· Run Line Arizona Diamondbacks home -1.5· Run Line batter84 Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nolan Arenado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Corbin Carroll 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trent Grisham 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trent Grisham Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ketel Marte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gabriel Moreno RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Caballero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Geraldo Perdomo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gabriel Moreno 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ildemaro Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll Walks 1+· walks 1+ Gabriel Moreno Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ildemaro Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Geraldo Perdomo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ben Rice Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Caballero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado HR· HR 1+ Ketel Marte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 2+· hits 2+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Caballero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ketel Marte HR· HR 1+ Ben Rice HR· HR 1+ Paul Goldschmidt HR· HR 1+ Trent Grisham HR· HR 1+ Corbin Carroll HR· HR 1+ Gabriel Moreno HR· HR 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. HR· HR 1+ José Caballero HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo HR· HR 1+ games6 Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals New York Yankees Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.582 (away 89-64) vs home 80-74 0.519, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 9/3 Hit
53% Arizona Diamondbacks Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.519 (home 80-74) vs away 89-64 0.582, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 2/10 Miss
49% New York Yankees team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Arizona Diamondbacks team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
