New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 12:10 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate New York Yankees 52%
Arizona Diamondbacks 48%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.578 (away 89-65) vs home 81-74 0.523, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
New York Yankees Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching matchup
CS Cam Schlittler Appearance confirmed
BP Brandon Pfaadt Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 73°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 102· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267 adjusted 0.289, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+8.3%p Park Runs 102 / HR 103 73°F 0 mph, None Arizona Diamondbacks 6 OUT (Corbin Burnes …) New York Yankees 5 OUT (Aaron Judge …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.273 (374PA) Statcast xBA 0.267 (actual 0.264, underrated 3p) Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 BR Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267 adjusted 0.289, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
67% Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ben Rice Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cody Bellinger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nolan Arenado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gabriel Moreno Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Caballero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trent Grisham Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ketel Marte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gabriel Moreno Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Corbin Carroll RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nolan Arenado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ildemaro Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ketel Marte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Caballero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ketel Marte Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Caballero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado HR· HR 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. HR· HR 1+ Paul Goldschmidt HR· HR 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ketel Marte HR· HR 1+ Cody Bellinger HR· HR 1+ José Caballero HR· HR 1+ Corbin Carroll HR· HR 1+ Gabriel Moreno HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas HR· HR 1+ Run line4 New York Yankees away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
67% Arizona Diamondbacks home +1.5· Run Line New York Yankees away -1.5· Run Line Arizona Diamondbacks home -1.5· Run Line games6 Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals New York Yankees Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.578 (away 89-65) vs home 81-74 0.523, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/6 Miss
52% Arizona Diamondbacks Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.523 (home 81-74) vs away 89-65 0.578, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 5/4 Hit
48% New York Yankees team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Arizona Diamondbacks team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
