New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 8:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast New York Yankees 51%
Arizona Diamondbacks 49%
Locked before start
Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Miss Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ 49% Hit Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ 53% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.574 (away 89-66) vs home 82-74 0.526, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
New York Yankees Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching matchup
WW Will Warren Appearance confirmed
CB Corbin Burnes Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Roof Closed 73°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 102· HR 103
Data source: MLB Stats API
Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 New York Yankees away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
67% Arizona Diamondbacks home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
65% New York Yankees away -1.5· Run Line Arizona Diamondbacks home -1.5· Run Line batter84 Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 1+· hits 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ben Rice Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Caballero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trent Grisham Walks 1+· walks 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Caballero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Gabriel Moreno Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nolan Arenado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ketel Marte Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Gabriel Moreno Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Corbin Carroll Walks 1+· walks 1+ Corbin Carroll Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trent Grisham 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nolan Arenado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ketel Marte Walks 1+· walks 1+ Corbin Carroll 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Caballero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ketel Marte 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice HR· HR 1+ Gabriel Moreno RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Gabriel Moreno Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ketel Marte Hits 2+· hits 2+ Gabriel Moreno 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nolan Arenado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Corbin Carroll RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Geraldo Perdomo Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ildemaro Vargas 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Geraldo Perdomo RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Corbin Carroll Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ildemaro Vargas Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. HR· HR 1+ Nolan Arenado HR· HR 1+ Trent Grisham HR· HR 1+ José Caballero HR· HR 1+ Cody Bellinger HR· HR 1+ Corbin Carroll HR· HR 1+ Ketel Marte HR· HR 1+ Gabriel Moreno HR· HR 1+ Ildemaro Vargas HR· HR 1+ Geraldo Perdomo HR· HR 1+ games6 New York Yankees Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.574 (away 89-66) vs home 82-74 0.526, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/9 Miss
51% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Arizona Diamondbacks Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.526 (home 82-74) vs away 89-66 0.574, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 8/5 Hit
49% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals New York Yankees team runs Over 4.5· Runs Arizona Diamondbacks team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
