New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins — Game center Final MLB
Sep 14 (Mon) · 11:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast New York Yankees 57%
Minnesota Twins 43%
Locked before start
Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73% Hit Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Hit New York Yankees away +1.5· Run Line 70% Showing 3 of 73 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.580 (away 87-63) vs home 70-80 0.467, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
New York Yankees Minnesota Twins
Pitching matchup
WW Will Warren Appearance confirmed
DK Dean Kremer Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 59°F· wind 12 mph, R To L· park factor runs 100· HR 99
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73%
Locked at publish
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267· BvP 3/8 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+8.3%p Park Runs 100 / HR 99 59°F 12 mph, R To L Minnesota Twins 10 OUT (Walker Jenkins …) New York Yankees 5 OUT (Aaron Judge …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.273 (374PA) Statcast xBA 0.267 (actual 0.264, underrated 3p) BvP career 3/8 (.375, K 1·HR 0) → weight 4% Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 BR Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267· BvP 3/8 adjusted 0.293, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
73% Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Royce Lewis Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Caballero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ben Rice Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ben Rice Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kody Clemens Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Caballero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brooks Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brooks Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kody Clemens RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kody Clemens 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trent Grisham 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brooks Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Bell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Bell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luke Keaschall Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Bell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Bell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Royce Lewis Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Caballero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Caballero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Royce Lewis 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brooks Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Luke Keaschall RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt HR· HR 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Bell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luke Keaschall Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. HR· HR 1+ Trent Grisham HR· HR 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cody Bellinger HR· HR 1+ Kody Clemens HR· HR 1+ José Caballero HR· HR 1+ Brooks Lee HR· HR 1+ Josh Bell HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall HR· HR 1+ Run line4 New York Yankees away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% Minnesota Twins home +1.5· Run Line New York Yankees away -1.5· Run Line Minnesota Twins home -1.5· Run Line games6 New York Yankees Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.580 (away 87-63) vs home 70-80 0.467, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 8/4 Hit
57% New York Yankees team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Minnesota Twins Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.467 (home 70-80) vs away 87-63 0.580, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 3/9 Miss
43% Minnesota Twins team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
