New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins — Game center Final MLB
Sep 15 (Tue) · 11:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast New York Yankees 57%
Minnesota Twins 43%
Locked before start
Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72% Hit Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Hit Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ 55% Miss Showing 3 of 87 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.583 (away 88-63) vs home 70-81 0.464, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
New York Yankees Minnesota Twins
Pitching matchup
MF Max Fried Appearance confirmed
BO Bailey Ober Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 69°F· wind 9 mph, Out To RF· park factor runs 100· HR 99
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267 adjusted 0.289, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+8.3%p Park Runs 100 / HR 99 69°F 9 mph, Out To RF Minnesota Twins 10 OUT (Walker Jenkins …) New York Yankees 5 OUT (Aaron Judge …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.273 (374PA) Statcast xBA 0.267 (actual 0.264, underrated 3p) Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 BR Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267 adjusted 0.289, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
72% Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 1+· hits 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Caballero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Caballero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Caballero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Luke Keaschall Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Caballero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Bell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Bell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brooks Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Caballero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kody Clemens Walks 1+· walks 1+ Royce Lewis Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luke Keaschall Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Bell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brooks Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Bell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt HR· HR 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brooks Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Josh Bell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Royce Lewis 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. HR· HR 1+ Trent Grisham HR· HR 1+ Cody Bellinger HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kody Clemens HR· HR 1+ Josh Bell HR· HR 1+ Brooks Lee HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall HR· HR 1+ Run line4 New York Yankees away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Minnesota Twins home +1.5· Run Line New York Yankees away -1.5· Run Line Minnesota Twins home -1.5· Run Line games6 New York Yankees team runs Over 4.5· Runs New York Yankees Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.583 (away 88-63) vs home 70-81 0.464, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 8/2 Hit
57% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Minnesota Twins Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.464 (home 70-81) vs away 88-63 0.583, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 1/9 Miss
43% Minnesota Twins team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
