New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins — Game center Final MLB
Sep 16 (Wed) · 5:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast New York Yankees 57%
Minnesota Twins 43%
Locked before start
Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71% Hit Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Hit New York Yankees away +1.5· Run Line 71% Showing 3 of 85 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.579 (away 88-64) vs home 71-81 0.467, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
New York Yankees Minnesota Twins
Pitching matchup
CR Carlos Rodón Appearance confirmed
ZM Zebby Matthews Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 71°F· wind 10 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 100· HR 99
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267· BvP 5/10 adjusted 0.300, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+8.3%p Park Runs 100 / HR 99 71°F 10 mph, In From RF Minnesota Twins 10 OUT (Walker Jenkins …) New York Yankees 5 OUT (Aaron Judge …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.273 (374PA) Statcast xBA 0.267 (actual 0.264, underrated 3p) BvP career 5/10 (.500, K 0·HR 1) → weight 5% Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 BR Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267· BvP 5/10 adjusted 0.300, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
71% Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 1+· hits 1+ Josh Bell Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee Hits 1+· hits 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 1+· hits 1+ Luke Keaschall Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trent Grisham RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ben Rice Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trent Grisham Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Caballero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luke Keaschall Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Bell Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kody Clemens Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kody Clemens Walks 1+· walks 1+ Josh Bell Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brooks Lee Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice HR· HR 1+ José Caballero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kody Clemens RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brooks Lee Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Josh Bell 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kody Clemens 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brooks Lee 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Royce Lewis Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brooks Lee RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Josh Bell RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Luke Keaschall Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Paul Goldschmidt HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 2+· hits 2+ Royce Lewis 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Luke Keaschall 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Josh Bell Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. HR· HR 1+ Trent Grisham HR· HR 1+ José Caballero HR· HR 1+ Kody Clemens Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brooks Lee Hits 2+· hits 2+ Luke Keaschall Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cody Bellinger HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Royce Lewis Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kody Clemens HR· HR 1+ Brooks Lee HR· HR 1+ Josh Bell HR· HR 1+ Royce Lewis HR· HR 1+ Luke Keaschall HR· HR 1+ Run line4 New York Yankees away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% Minnesota Twins home +1.5· Run Line New York Yankees away -1.5· Run Line Minnesota Twins home -1.5· Run Line games6 New York Yankees team runs Over 4.5· Runs New York Yankees Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.579 (away 88-64) vs home 71-81 0.467, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/6 Miss
57% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Minnesota Twins Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.467 (home 71-81) vs away 88-64 0.579, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 5/5 Hit
43% Minnesota Twins team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
