New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays — Game center Final MLB
Oct 6 (Tue) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast New York Yankees 5%
Tampa Bay Rays 95%
Locked before start
Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line 96% Tampa Bay Rays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win 95% Hit Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 1.000 (home 2-0) vs away 0-2 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 4, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays
Pitching matchup
CS Cam Schlittler Appearance confirmed
FP Freddy Peralta Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Dome 72°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 97· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64%
Locked at publish
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267 adjusted 0.289, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+8.3%p Park Runs 97 / HR 95 72°F 0 mph, None Tampa Bay Rays 6 OUT (Shane McClanahan …) New York Yankees 4 OUT (Aaron Judge …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.273 (374PA) Statcast xBA 0.267 (actual 0.264, underrated 3p) Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
96% Tampa Bay Rays home -1.5· Run Line New York Yankees away +1.5· Run Line New York Yankees away -1.5· Run Line games6 Tampa Bay Rays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 1.000 (home 2-0) vs away 0-2 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 4, matchup combination model
runs 5/3 Hit
95% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals New York Yankees team runs Over 4.5· Runs Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals New York Yankees Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.500 (away 0-2) vs home 2-0 1.000, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/6 Miss
5% batter84 BR Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267 adjusted 0.289, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
64% Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ José Caballero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ José Caballero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ben Rice HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Caballero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 2+· hits 2+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt HR· HR 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. HR· HR 1+ Trent Grisham HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ Cody Bellinger HR· HR 1+ José Caballero HR· HR 1+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
