New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays — Game center Scheduled MLB
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 10:30 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish New York Yankees 47%
Tampa Bay Rays 53%
Locked before start
Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ 58% Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.500 (home 0-0) vs away 0-0 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 4, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Pregame home win ESPN 58% · Spolytics 53% −5.4%p External figure: ESPN Matchup Predictor. Retrieved 2026-10-03T21:40:04.694Z; forecast publication time unavailable. Shown for reference; not an input to our model.
Head to head New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays
Pitching matchup
GC Gerrit Cole Probable · subject to change
DR Drew Rasmussen Probable · subject to change
Recent form · newest first
Dome 70°F· wind 0 mph, None· park factor runs 97· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Tampa Bay Rays home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
67% New York Yankees away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
64% Tampa Bay Rays home -1.5· Run Line New York Yankees away -1.5· Run Line batter84 Junior Caminero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ben Rice Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 1+· hits 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 1+· hits 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 1+· hits 1+ José Caballero Hits 1+· hits 1+ Taylor Walls Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trent Grisham Hits 1+· hits 1+ Junior Caminero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Junior Caminero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ben Rice Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Yandy Díaz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jonathan Aranda Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ben Rice Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ben Rice RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Yandy Díaz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jonathan Aranda RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trent Grisham Walks 1+· walks 1+ Junior Caminero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jonathan Aranda 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Junior Caminero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chandler Simpson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cedric Mullins Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Paul Goldschmidt RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cedric Mullins 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Cody Bellinger 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trent Grisham 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Cody Bellinger Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jonathan Aranda Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trent Grisham Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Cody Bellinger RBI 1+· RBI 1+ José Caballero 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls Walks 1+· walks 1+ Taylor Walls 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ José Caballero Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Junior Caminero HR· HR 1+ Yandy Díaz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Taylor Walls RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Chandler Simpson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ben Rice Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jonathan Aranda Hits 2+· hits 2+ Yandy Díaz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cedric Mullins Walks 1+· walks 1+ Chandler Simpson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ben Rice HR· HR 1+ Cody Bellinger Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jonathan Aranda HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Caballero Walks 1+· walks 1+ Yandy Díaz HR· HR 1+ Paul Goldschmidt Hits 2+· hits 2+ José Caballero Hits 2+· hits 2+ Taylor Walls Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trent Grisham Hits 2+· hits 2+ Paul Goldschmidt HR· HR 1+ Cedric Mullins HR· HR 1+ Jazz Chisholm Jr. HR· HR 1+ Trent Grisham HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Cody Bellinger HR· HR 1+ José Caballero HR· HR 1+ Taylor Walls HR· HR 1+ Chandler Simpson HR· HR 1+ games6 Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Tampa Bay Rays Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.500 (home 0-0) vs away 0-0 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 4, matchup combination model
53% New York Yankees Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.500 (away 0-0) vs home 0-0 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
47% Tampa Bay Rays team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals New York Yankees team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
