Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves — Game center Final MLB
Sep 13 (Sun) · 5:35 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Philadelphia Phillies 44%
Atlanta Braves 57%
Locked before start
Atlanta Braves home +1.5· Run Line 71% Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Miss Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ 58% Hit Showing 3 of 30 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.587 (home 88-62) vs away 83-67 0.553, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 5, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves
Pitching matchup
AP Andrew Painter Appearance confirmed
GH Grant Holmes Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 88°F· wind 8 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73%
Model probability
hits 3/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 88°F 8 mph, Out To LF Atlanta Braves 10 OUT (Lane Thomas …) Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.299 (381PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Model probability
hits 3/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.251 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.247· BvP 3/8 adjusted 0.255, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.276
+3.0%p Career vs this pitcher
3/8· weight 4%
+0.6%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 88°F 8 mph, Out To LF Atlanta Braves 10 OUT (Lane Thomas …) Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) last 15G AVG 0.276 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.245 (368PA) Statcast xBA 0.247 (actual 0.251, overrated 4p) BvP career 3/8 (.375, K 0·HR 0) → weight 4% Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290 adjusted 0.311, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 3/1 Hit
73% MO Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.251 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.247· BvP 3/8 adjusted 0.255, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 3/1 Hit
71% Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Schwarber Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryce Harper Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryce Harper 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trea Turner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trea Turner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryson Stott Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Marsh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Bohm RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryson Stott 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryson Stott RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Marsh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Bohm Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm Walks 1+· walks 1+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trea Turner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 2+· hits 2+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryce Harper HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Atlanta Braves home +1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies away +1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves home -1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies away -1.5· Run Line games6 Atlanta Braves team runs Over 4.5· Runs Atlanta Braves Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.587 (home 88-62) vs away 83-67 0.553, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 4/10 Miss
57% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Philadelphia Phillies team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Philadelphia Phillies Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.553 (away 83-67) vs home 88-62 0.587, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 9/5 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
