Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves — Game center Final MLB
Sep 29 (Tue) · 6:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Philadelphia Phillies 5%
Atlanta Braves 95%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 1.000 (home 1-0) vs away 0-1 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 5, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves
Pitching matchup
JL Jesús Luzardo Appearance confirmed
CS Chris Sale Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Sunny 80°F· wind 3 mph, Calm· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Atlanta Braves home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
97% Atlanta Braves home -1.5· Run Line High
expected runs 4.2 vs 3.8 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
67% Philadelphia Phillies away +1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies away -1.5· Run Line games6 Atlanta Braves Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 1.000 (home 1-0) vs away 0-1 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 5/4 Hit
95% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Philadelphia Phillies team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Atlanta Braves team runs Over 4.5· Runs Philadelphia Phillies Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.500 (away 0-1) vs home 1-0 1.000, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/6 Miss
5% batter84 Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Schwarber RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Bohm Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryson Stott Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryce Harper Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Bohm RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryson Stott RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Marsh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryson Stott 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Marsh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trea Turner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm Hits 2+· hits 2+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trea Turner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryce Harper Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trea Turner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott HR· HR 1+ strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
