Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves — Game center Final MLB
Sep 30 (Wed) · 6:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Philadelphia Phillies 47%
Atlanta Braves 53%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.500 (home 1-1) vs away 1-1 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 5, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves
Pitching matchup
CS Cristopher Sánchez Appearance confirmed
TM Tyler Mahle Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 83°F· wind 4 mph, L To R· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 2/15 adjusted 0.288, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p Career vs this pitcher
2/15· weight 7%
-1.4%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 83°F 4 mph, L To R Atlanta Braves 10 OUT (Lane Thomas …) Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.286 (210PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) BvP career 2/15 (.133, K 10·HR 0) → weight 7% Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 2/15 adjusted 0.288, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
70% Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper Walks 1+· walks 1+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryce Harper Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryce Harper RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trea Turner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Marsh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trea Turner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Bohm Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Marsh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryson Stott RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Marsh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trea Turner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Bohm 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper HR· HR 1+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner HR· HR 1+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Atlanta Braves home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Philadelphia Phillies away +1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves home -1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies away -1.5· Run Line games6 Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Atlanta Braves Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.500 (home 1-1) vs away 1-1 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 3/5 Miss
53% Atlanta Braves team runs Over 4.5· Runs Philadelphia Phillies Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.500 (away 1-1) vs home 1-1 0.500, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/4 Hit
47% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Philadelphia Phillies team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
