Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves — Game center Final MLB
Oct 2 (Fri) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Philadelphia Phillies 47%
Atlanta Braves 53%
Locked before start
Atlanta Braves home +1.5· Run Line 69% Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72% Hit Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.667 (home 2-1) vs away 1-2 0.333, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 5, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves
Pitching matchup
AN Aaron Nola Appearance confirmed
RK Ray Kerr Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 84°F· wind 5 mph, L To R· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 7/35 adjusted 0.295, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.355
+7.3%p Career vs this pitcher
7/35· weight 15%
-1.9%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 84°F 5 mph, L To R Atlanta Braves 9 OUT (Martin Perez …) Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) last 15G AVG 0.355 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.299 (381PA) Statcast xBA 0.290 (actual 0.294, overrated 4p) BvP career 7/35 (.200, K 9·HR 3) → weight 15% Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 MI Michael Harris II Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.290· BvP 7/35 adjusted 0.295, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
72% Mauricio Dubón Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 1+· hits 1+ Austin Riley Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Harris II Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Matt Olson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Drake Baldwin Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mauricio Dubón Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Harris II RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Drake Baldwin 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Harris II Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ozzie Albies 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Mauricio Dubón 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Austin Riley 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ozzie Albies Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mauricio Dubón RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Schwarber Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Schwarber 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Matt Olson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Mauricio Dubón Hits 2+· hits 2+ Matt Olson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper Walks 1+· walks 1+ Drake Baldwin Walks 1+· walks 1+ Austin Riley Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ozzie Albies Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Matt Olson HR· HR 1+ Bryce Harper Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Mauricio Dubón Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryson Stott Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ozzie Albies Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trea Turner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Austin Riley Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Harris II HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Marsh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 2+· hits 2+ Drake Baldwin HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ozzie Albies HR· HR 1+ Michael Harris II Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Marsh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryson Stott RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryce Harper Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trea Turner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Austin Riley HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Marsh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryce Harper HR· HR 1+ Mauricio Dubón HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Atlanta Braves home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
69% Philadelphia Phillies away +1.5· Run Line Atlanta Braves home -1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies away -1.5· Run Line games6 Atlanta Braves team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Atlanta Braves Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.667 (home 2-1) vs away 1-2 0.333, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 6/3 Hit
53% Philadelphia Phillies Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.333 (away 1-2) vs home 2-1 0.667, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 2/7 Miss
47% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Philadelphia Phillies team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
