Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets — Game center Final MLB
Sep 17 (Thu) · 11:15 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Philadelphia Phillies 56%
New York Mets 44%
Locked before start
Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63% Hit Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Hit Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ 58% Miss Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.556 (away 85-68) vs home 69-84 0.451, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets
Pitching matchup
AN Aaron Nola Appearance confirmed
NM Nolan McLean Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 76°F· wind 6 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 96· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.280· BvP 0/9 adjusted 0.247, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.215
-5.4%p Career vs this pitcher
0/9· weight 4%
-1.3%p Park Runs 96 / HR 95 76°F 6 mph, Out To LF New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) last 15G AVG 0.215 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.261 (459PA) Statcast xBA 0.280 (actual 0.260, underrated 20p) BvP career 0/9 (.000, K 2·HR 0) → weight 4% Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Philadelphia Phillies away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% New York Mets home +1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies away -1.5· Run Line New York Mets home -1.5· Run Line batter84 BB Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.280· BvP 0/9 adjusted 0.247, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
65% Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryce Harper Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Schwarber 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bo Bichette RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryce Harper Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Schwarber RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryce Harper RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryce Harper 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor Walks 1+· walks 1+ A.J. Ewing Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryson Stott Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge Walks 1+· walks 1+ Marcus Semien Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brett Baty Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trea Turner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bo Bichette Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm Walks 1+· walks 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Marsh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Marsh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trea Turner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryson Stott RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryson Stott Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Marsh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Hits 2+· hits 2+ Marcus Semien Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryce Harper Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Bohm 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trea Turner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Marsh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carson Benge HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bo Bichette HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien HR· HR 1+ Bryce Harper HR· HR 1+ Brett Baty HR· HR 1+ A.J. Ewing HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott HR· HR 1+ games6 New York Mets team runs Over 3.5· Runs Philadelphia Phillies Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.556 (away 85-68) vs home 69-84 0.451, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/1 Hit
56% Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals New York Mets Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.451 (home 69-84) vs away 85-68 0.556, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 0/4 Miss
44% Philadelphia Phillies team runs Over 3.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
