Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets — Game center Final MLB
Sep 18 (Fri) · 11:15 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Philadelphia Phillies 57%
New York Mets 43%
Locked before start
Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ 57% Hit Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ 59% Hit Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ 52% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.552 (away 85-69) vs home 70-84 0.455, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets
Pitching matchup
TM Tim Mayza Appearance confirmed
ZT Zac Thornton Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 76°F· wind 6 mph, In From CF· park factor runs 96· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 63%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.249 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.294, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.273
+2.9%p Statcast xBA
0.265 (actual 0.249)
+0.7%p Park Runs 96 / HR 95 76°F 6 mph, In From CF New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) last 15G AVG 0.273 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.292 (178PA) Statcast xBA 0.265 (actual 0.249, underrated 16p) A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Philadelphia Phillies away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% New York Mets home +1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies away -1.5· Run Line New York Mets home -1.5· Run Line batter84 AB Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.249 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.294, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
63% A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryce Harper Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carson Benge Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bo Bichette Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Bohm RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Schwarber 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Francisco Lindor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bo Bichette 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryce Harper RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryson Stott Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryson Stott 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Marsh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Marcus Semien Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trea Turner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ A.J. Ewing Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryson Stott Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Marsh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Bohm Hits 2+· hits 2+ Marcus Semien Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carson Benge Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trea Turner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carson Benge RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Marcus Semien RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Carson Benge Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryce Harper Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 2+· hits 2+ Marcus Semien Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trea Turner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor HR· HR 1+ Bryce Harper HR· HR 1+ Carson Benge HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh HR· HR 1+ Bo Bichette HR· HR 1+ A.J. Ewing HR· HR 1+ Brett Baty HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott HR· HR 1+ games6 Philadelphia Phillies Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.552 (away 85-69) vs home 70-84 0.455, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/7 Miss
57% Philadelphia Phillies team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals New York Mets team runs Over 3.5· Runs New York Mets Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.455 (home 70-84) vs away 85-69 0.552, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 6/4 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
