Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets — Game center Final MLB
Sep 19 (Sat) · 8:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Philadelphia Phillies 57%
New York Mets 43%
Locked before start
Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Hit Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Hit Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ 60% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.548 (away 85-70) vs home 71-84 0.458, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets
Pitching matchup
AP Andrew Painter Appearance confirmed
CS Christian Scott Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 68°F· wind 6 mph, In From RF· park factor runs 96· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.280 adjusted 0.258, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.215
-5.4%p Statcast xBA
0.280 (actual 0.260)
+0.8%p Park Runs 96 / HR 95 68°F 6 mph, In From RF New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) last 15G AVG 0.215 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.261 (459PA) Statcast xBA 0.280 (actual 0.260, underrated 20p) Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Philadelphia Phillies away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
71% New York Mets home +1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies away -1.5· Run Line New York Mets home -1.5· Run Line batter84 BB Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.280 adjusted 0.258, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
66% Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryce Harper Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber Walks 1+· walks 1+ Francisco Lindor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bo Bichette Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ A.J. Ewing Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryce Harper Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Carson Benge 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Francisco Lindor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ A.J. Ewing 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Schwarber 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Marcus Semien 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trea Turner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryce Harper RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryce Harper 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Marsh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bo Bichette RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Bohm RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryson Stott Walks 1+· walks 1+ A.J. Ewing Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brett Baty Walks 1+· walks 1+ Francisco Lindor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bo Bichette Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carson Benge Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carson Benge Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Marsh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 2+· hits 2+ A.J. Ewing Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Marsh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trea Turner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Bohm 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brett Baty Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryce Harper Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trea Turner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carson Benge HR· HR 1+ Bryce Harper HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien HR· HR 1+ Bo Bichette HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner HR· HR 1+ A.J. Ewing HR· HR 1+ Brett Baty HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott HR· HR 1+ games6 New York Mets team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals Philadelphia Phillies Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.548 (away 85-70) vs home 71-84 0.458, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/11 Miss
57% Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Philadelphia Phillies team runs Over 3.5· Runs New York Mets Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.458 (home 71-84) vs away 85-70 0.548, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 10/4 Hit
43% strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
