Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets — Game center Final MLB
Sep 20 (Sun) · 5:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Philadelphia Phillies 57%
New York Mets 43%
Locked before start
Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ 65% Hit Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66% Hit A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ 62% Hit Showing 3 of 53 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.551 (away 86-70) vs home 71-85 0.455, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets
Pitching matchup
CS Cristopher Sánchez Appearance confirmed
JT Jonah Tong Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Drizzle 68°F· wind 8 mph, Out To LF· park factor runs 96· HR 95
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 66%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.280 adjusted 0.255, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.215
-5.4%p Statcast xBA
0.280 (actual 0.260)
+0.8%p Park Runs 96 / HR 95 68°F 8 mph, Out To LF New York Mets 8 OUT (Jared Young …) Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) last 15G AVG 0.215 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.257 (179PA) Statcast xBA 0.280 (actual 0.260, underrated 20p) Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Philadelphia Phillies away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
70% New York Mets home +1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies away -1.5· Run Line New York Mets home -1.5· Run Line batter84 BB Bo Bichette Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.280 adjusted 0.255, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
66% Carson Benge Hits 1+· hits 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 1+· hits 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 1+· hits 1+ Francisco Lindor Hits 1+· hits 1+ Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brett Baty Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper Walks 1+· walks 1+ Carson Benge Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bo Bichette Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ A.J. Ewing Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Francisco Lindor RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryce Harper Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bo Bichette 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryce Harper 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Francisco Lindor 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Schwarber RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Francisco Lindor Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Marcus Semien RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trea Turner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Hits 2+· hits 2+ Carson Benge Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brett Baty Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Francisco Lindor Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Marsh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bo Bichette RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trea Turner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Marsh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brett Baty Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm Walks 1+· walks 1+ A.J. Ewing Walks 1+· walks 1+ Marcus Semien Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryson Stott Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Bohm RBI 1+· RBI 1+ A.J. Ewing Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Marcus Semien Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Carson Benge Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bo Bichette Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryson Stott 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Marsh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 2+· hits 2+ Trea Turner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brett Baty Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott Hits 2+· hits 2+ Francisco Lindor HR· HR 1+ Bryce Harper HR· HR 1+ Marcus Semien HR· HR 1+ Carson Benge HR· HR 1+ Bo Bichette HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm HR· HR 1+ A.J. Ewing HR· HR 1+ Brett Baty HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott HR· HR 1+ games6 Philadelphia Phillies Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.551 (away 86-70) vs home 71-85 0.455, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 7/3 Hit
57% New York Mets team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 7.5· Totals Philadelphia Phillies team runs Over 3.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 7.5· Totals New York Mets Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.455 (home 71-85) vs away 86-70 0.551, Home advantage +4%· injury home 8 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 2/8 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
