Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 15 (Tue) · 10:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Philadelphia Phillies 56%
Washington Nationals 44%
Locked before start
Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74% Hit Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72% Hit Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ 70% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.550 (away 83-68) vs home 71-81 0.467, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Philadelphia Phillies Washington Nationals
Pitching matchup
CS Cristopher Sánchez Appearance confirmed
JK Jackson Kent Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 78°F· wind 5 mph, R To L· park factor runs 100· HR 101
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 74%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.249 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.294, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.273
+2.9%p Statcast xBA
0.265 (actual 0.249)
+0.7%p Park Runs 100 / HR 101 78°F 5 mph, R To L Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) last 15G AVG 0.273 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.292 (178PA) Statcast xBA 0.265 (actual 0.249, underrated 16p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 72%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.232 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.236 adjusted 0.235, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.151
-9.7%p Park Runs 100 / HR 101 78°F 5 mph, R To L Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) last 15G AVG 0.151 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.260 (215PA) Statcast xBA 0.236 (actual 0.232, underrated 4p) Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 AB Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.249 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.294, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
74% KS Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.232 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.236 adjusted 0.235, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
72% Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jacob Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Daylen Lile Hits 1+· hits 1+ James Wood Hits 1+· hits 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dylan Crews Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryce Harper Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Schwarber Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Bohm Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Bohm RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryce Harper 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryson Stott RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Marsh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryce Harper Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alec Bohm 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Marsh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trea Turner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Daylen Lile Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Marsh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ James Wood Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jacob Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ James Wood Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dylan Crews Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ CJ Abrams RBI 1+· RBI 1+ James Wood RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Daylen Lile 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ James Wood 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dylan Crews RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jacob Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jacob Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dylan Crews 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 2+· hits 2+ Daylen Lile RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jacob Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez Walks 1+· walks 1+ Daylen Lile Hits 2+· hits 2+ CJ Abrams Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dylan Crews Hits 2+· hits 2+ James Wood Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nasim Nuñez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jacob Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Daylen Lile Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dylan Crews Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 2+· hits 2+ James Wood HR· HR 1+ CJ Abrams HR· HR 1+ Bryce Harper HR· HR 1+ Daylen Lile HR· HR 1+ Dylan Crews HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner HR· HR 1+ Jacob Young HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Philadelphia Phillies away +1.5· Run Line Washington Nationals home +1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies away -1.5· Run Line Washington Nationals home -1.5· Run Line games6 Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Philadelphia Phillies team runs Over 4.5· Runs Philadelphia Phillies Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.550 (away 83-68) vs home 71-81 0.467, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/7 Miss
56% Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Washington Nationals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.467 (home 71-81) vs away 83-68 0.550, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 6/4 Hit
44% Washington Nationals team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
