Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals — Game center Final MLB
Sep 16 (Wed) · 10:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Philadelphia Phillies 56%
Washington Nationals 44%
Locked before start
Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67% Hit Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ 58% Miss Daylen Lile Hits 1+· hits 1+ 61% Hit Showing 3 of 94 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.553 (away 84-68) vs home 71-82 0.464, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Philadelphia Phillies Washington Nationals
Pitching matchup
ZW Zack Wheeler Appearance confirmed
JS Jared Simpson Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Clear 84°F· wind 6 mph, R To L· park factor runs 100· HR 101
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Locked at publish
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.242 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.242 adjusted 0.226, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.250
+1.0%p Park Runs 100 / HR 101 84°F 6 mph, R To L Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) last 15G AVG 0.250 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.219 (210PA) Statcast xBA 0.242 (actual 0.242, underrated 0p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 69%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.269 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.271 adjusted 0.231, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.262
-0.8%p Park Runs 100 / HR 101 84°F 6 mph, R To L Washington Nationals 6 OUT (Matt Waldron …) Philadelphia Phillies 5 OUT (Caleb Kilian …) last 15G AVG 0.262 ↓ vs LHP AVG 0.222 (225PA) Statcast xBA 0.271 (actual 0.269, underrated 2p) Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter84 TT Trea Turner Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.242 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.242 adjusted 0.226, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
69% BH Bryce Harper Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.269 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.271 adjusted 0.231, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
69% Alec Bohm Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Marsh Hits 1+· hits 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 1+· hits 1+ Daylen Lile Hits 1+· hits 1+ James Wood Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryson Stott Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jacob Young Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dylan Crews Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryce Harper Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Schwarber RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryce Harper RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Schwarber Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Trea Turner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ James Wood Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryce Harper Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Marsh RBI 1+· RBI 1+ CJ Abrams Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Alec Bohm Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Marsh Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Schwarber Walks 1+· walks 1+ Daylen Lile Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ CJ Abrams RBI 1+· RBI 1+ CJ Abrams 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ James Wood RBI 1+· RBI 1+ James Wood Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryson Stott RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alec Bohm 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Daylen Lile 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Bryson Stott 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ James Wood 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Marsh 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Trea Turner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Daylen Lile RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Trea Turner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryce Harper Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dylan Crews RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jacob Young RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jacob Young 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dylan Crews 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alec Bohm Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jacob Young Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nasim Nuñez Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryson Stott Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Schwarber Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Marsh Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dylan Crews Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jacob Young Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alec Bohm Walks 1+· walks 1+ CJ Abrams Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dylan Crews Walks 1+· walks 1+ Daylen Lile Walks 1+· walks 1+ Trea Turner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Daylen Lile Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryson Stott Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Schwarber HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh Walks 1+· walks 1+ James Wood Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jacob Young Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nasim Nuñez Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ CJ Abrams HR· HR 1+ James Wood HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dylan Crews Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryce Harper HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nasim Nuñez Hits 2+· hits 2+ Daylen Lile HR· HR 1+ Trea Turner HR· HR 1+ Brandon Marsh HR· HR 1+ Alec Bohm HR· HR 1+ Dylan Crews HR· HR 1+ Jacob Young HR· HR 1+ Bryson Stott HR· HR 1+ Nasim Nuñez HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Philadelphia Phillies away +1.5· Run Line Washington Nationals home +1.5· Run Line Philadelphia Phillies away -1.5· Run Line Washington Nationals home -1.5· Run Line games6 Philadelphia Phillies team runs Over 4.5· Runs Philadelphia Phillies Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Medium
season win% 0.553 (away 84-68) vs home 71-82 0.464, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/1 Hit
56% Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Washington Nationals Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Medium
season win% 0.464 (home 71-82) vs away 84-68 0.553, Home advantage +4%· injury home 6 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 0/4 Miss
44% Washington Nationals team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
