Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs — Game center Final MLB
Sep 13 (Sun) · 6:20 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Pittsburgh Pirates 42%
Chicago Cubs 58%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.553 (home 83-67) vs away 75-75 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 5, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Pittsburgh Pirates Chicago Cubs
Pitching matchup
BC Bubba Chandler Appearance confirmed
MB Matthew Boyd Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 71°F· wind 10 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 101· HR 102
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 64%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.263 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.297· BvP 3/8 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.232
-3.7%p Statcast xBA
0.297 (actual 0.263)
+1.4%p Park Runs 101 / HR 102 71°F 10 mph, In From LF Chicago Cubs 9 OUT (Justin Steele …) Pittsburgh Pirates 5 OUT (Mitch Keller …) last 15G AVG 0.232 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.266 (467PA) Statcast xBA 0.297 (actual 0.263, underrated 34p) BvP career 3/8 (.375, K 1·HR 0) → weight 4% Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 Chicago Cubs home +1.5· Run Line High
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.6 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
72% Pittsburgh Pirates away +1.5· Run Line Chicago Cubs home -1.5· Run Line Pittsburgh Pirates away -1.5· Run Line batter84 NH Nico Hoerner Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.263 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.297· BvP 3/8 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
64% Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 1+· hits 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Lowe Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 1+· hits 1+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Busch Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ian Happ Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Michael Busch Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ian Happ Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Seiya Suzuki Walks 1+· walks 1+ Alex Bregman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryan Reynolds Walks 1+· walks 1+ Seiya Suzuki RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ian Happ RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ian Happ 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nico Hoerner 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Seiya Suzuki 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Alex Bregman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Horwitz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Lowe RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Lowe Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Michael Busch 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Michael Busch RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryan Reynolds Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryan Reynolds 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nico Hoerner Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ian Happ Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Seiya Suzuki Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Lowe Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Lowe 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nico Hoerner Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nico Hoerner RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Michael Busch Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryan Reynolds RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ryan O'Hearn 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nick Gonzales Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Horwitz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nico Hoerner Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Horwitz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nick Gonzales RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Mangum 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Mangum Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nick Gonzales 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Mangum RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Alex Bregman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Horwitz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nick Gonzales Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Lowe Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 2+· hits 2+ Seiya Suzuki Hits 2+· hits 2+ Nick Gonzales Hits 2+· hits 2+ Michael Busch Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Mangum Walks 1+· walks 1+ Pete Crow-Armstrong HR· HR 1+ Ian Happ Hits 2+· hits 2+ Brandon Lowe HR· HR 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Alex Bregman HR· HR 1+ Ian Happ HR· HR 1+ Seiya Suzuki HR· HR 1+ Ryan O'Hearn HR· HR 1+ Bryan Reynolds HR· HR 1+ Michael Busch HR· HR 1+ Spencer Horwitz HR· HR 1+ Nico Hoerner HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales HR· HR 1+ Jake Mangum HR· HR 1+ games6 Chicago Cubs Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.553 (home 83-67) vs away 75-75 0.500, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 3/5 Miss
58% Chicago Cubs team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Pittsburgh Pirates Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.500 (away 75-75) vs home 83-67 0.553, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/4 Hit
42% Pittsburgh Pirates team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
