Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 26 (Sat) · 5:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Pittsburgh Pirates 50%
Detroit Tigers 50%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.472 (home 76-85) vs away 81-80 0.503, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 5, matchup combination model
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Pittsburgh Pirates Detroit Tigers
Pitching matchup
KY Kirby Yates Appearance confirmed
JV Justin Verlander Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Sunny 70°F· wind 8 mph, Out To RF· park factor runs 98· HR 94
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 71%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.240 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.286
+3.1%p Park Runs 98 / HR 94 70°F 8 mph, Out To RF Detroit Tigers 12 OUT (Kerry Carpenter …) Pittsburgh Pirates 5 OUT (Mitch Keller …) last 15G AVG 0.286 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.279 (391PA) Statcast xBA 0.240 (actual 0.261, overrated 21p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 67%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.265 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.247 adjusted 0.269, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.231
-4.1%p Park Runs 98 / HR 94 70°F 8 mph, Out To RF Detroit Tigers 12 OUT (Kerry Carpenter …) Pittsburgh Pirates 5 OUT (Mitch Keller …) last 15G AVG 0.231 ↓ vs RHP AVG 0.288 (278PA) Statcast xBA 0.247 (actual 0.265, overrated 18p) Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 BL Brandon Lowe Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.240 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
71% RO Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.265 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.247 adjusted 0.269, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
67% Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Lowe RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Lowe Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Lowe 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kevin McGonigle Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryan Reynolds 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryan Reynolds Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Torkelson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ryan O'Hearn 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dillon Dingler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Lowe Hits 2+· hits 2+ Riley Greene Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryan Reynolds Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Horwitz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kevin McGonigle 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Riley Greene Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kevin McGonigle Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nick Gonzales Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Riley Greene RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach McKinstry Walks 1+· walks 1+ Dillon Dingler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryan Reynolds RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Horwitz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Torkelson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Horwitz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Riley Greene 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nick Gonzales 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Mangum 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Lowe Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kevin McGonigle RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nick Gonzales RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Mangum Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Horwitz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Mangum RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach McKinstry RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Brandon Lowe HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Dillon Dingler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nick Gonzales Walks 1+· walks 1+ Riley Greene Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Mangum Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ryan O'Hearn HR· HR 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dillon Dingler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Mangum Walks 1+· walks 1+ Bryan Reynolds HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dillon Dingler HR· HR 1+ Spencer Torkelson HR· HR 1+ Spencer Horwitz HR· HR 1+ Riley Greene HR· HR 1+ Kevin McGonigle HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales HR· HR 1+ Jake Mangum HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Pittsburgh Pirates away +1.5· Run Line Detroit Tigers home +1.5· Run Line Pittsburgh Pirates away -1.5· Run Line Detroit Tigers home -1.5· Run Line games6 Pittsburgh Pirates team runs Over 4.5· Runs Detroit Tigers team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Pittsburgh Pirates Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.503 (away 81-80) vs home 76-85 0.472, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/5 Miss
50% Detroit Tigers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.472 (home 76-85) vs away 81-80 0.503, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 4/4 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
