Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers — Game center Final MLB
Sep 27 (Sun) · 7:10 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Pittsburgh Pirates 51%
Detroit Tigers 49%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.506 (away 82-80) vs home 76-86 0.469, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
Pittsburgh Pirates Detroit Tigers
Pitching matchup
JJ Jared Jones Appearance confirmed
RR River Ryan Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Sunny 76°F· wind 8 mph, Out To RF· park factor runs 98· HR 94
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 68%
Model probability
stat 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.240 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.286
+3.1%p Park Runs 98 / HR 94 76°F 8 mph, Out To RF Detroit Tigers 12 OUT (Kerry Carpenter …) Pittsburgh Pirates 5 OUT (Mitch Keller …) last 15G AVG 0.286 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.279 (391PA) Statcast xBA 0.240 (actual 0.261, overrated 21p) Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 BL Brandon Lowe Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.240 adjusted 0.275, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
stat 0/1 Miss
68% Ryan O'Hearn Hits 1+· hits 1+ Nick Gonzales Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 1+· hits 1+ Dillon Dingler Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Mangum Hits 1+· hits 1+ Riley Greene Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 1+· hits 1+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 1+· hits 1+ Brandon Lowe RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 1+· hits 1+ Bryan Reynolds Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Lowe Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Horwitz Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ryan O'Hearn RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryan Reynolds 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Brandon Lowe 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kevin McGonigle Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Lowe Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ryan O'Hearn 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dillon Dingler RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kevin McGonigle 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Dillon Dingler Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Riley Greene Walks 1+· walks 1+ Riley Greene Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kevin McGonigle Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Bryan Reynolds Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nick Gonzales Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Spencer Torkelson Walks 1+· walks 1+ Brandon Lowe Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Horwitz 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ryan O'Hearn Walks 1+· walks 1+ Nick Gonzales Walks 1+· walks 1+ Riley Greene RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Dillon Dingler 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Nick Gonzales 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Horwitz RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Bryan Reynolds RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Nick Gonzales RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Mangum 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Spencer Torkelson Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Riley Greene 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Mangum RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Zach McKinstry Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Mangum Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kevin McGonigle RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Spencer Horwitz Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Nick Gonzales Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ryan O'Hearn Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Zach McKinstry RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Mangum Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kevin McGonigle Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dillon Dingler Hits 2+· hits 2+ Zach McKinstry Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Brandon Lowe HR· HR 1+ Riley Greene Hits 2+· hits 2+ Bryan Reynolds Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Mangum Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Torkelson Hits 2+· hits 2+ Spencer Horwitz Hits 2+· hits 2+ Dillon Dingler Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ryan O'Hearn HR· HR 1+ Dillon Dingler HR· HR 1+ Spencer Torkelson HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry Hits 2+· hits 2+ Riley Greene HR· HR 1+ Bryan Reynolds HR· HR 1+ Kevin McGonigle HR· HR 1+ Spencer Horwitz HR· HR 1+ Nick Gonzales HR· HR 1+ Jake Mangum HR· HR 1+ Zach McKinstry HR· HR 1+ Run line4 Pittsburgh Pirates away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
66% Detroit Tigers home +1.5· Run Line Pittsburgh Pirates away -1.5· Run Line Detroit Tigers home -1.5· Run Line games6 Pittsburgh Pirates team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Pittsburgh Pirates Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win Low
season win% 0.506 (away 82-80) vs home 76-86 0.469, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 4/3 Hit
51% Detroit Tigers Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win Low
season win% 0.469 (home 76-86) vs away 82-80 0.506, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 5, matchup combination model
runs 2/5 Miss
49% Detroit Tigers team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
