San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies — Game center Final MLB
Sep 15 (Tue) · 12:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast San Diego Padres 63%
Colorado Rockies 37%
Locked before start
Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ 76% Hit Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ 75% Hit Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73% Hit Showing 3 of 73 locked markets
Behind the probability season win% 0.547 (away 82-68) vs home 55-95 0.367, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Diego Padres Colorado Rockies
Pitching matchup
CM Casey Mize Appearance confirmed
TS Tomoyuki Sugano Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 84°F· wind 19 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 112· HR 110
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 76%
Locked at publish
hits 3/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.254 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.270 adjusted 0.270, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.344
+10.8%p Statcast xBA
0.270 (actual 0.254)
+0.7%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 84°F 19 mph, In From LF Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) last 15G AVG 0.344 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.244 (438PA) Statcast xBA 0.270 (actual 0.254, underrated 16p) Hits 1+· hits 1+ 75%
Locked at publish
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+5.3%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 84°F 19 mph, In From LF Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.283 (487PA) Statcast xBA 0.296 (actual 0.289, underrated 7p) Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 JM Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.254 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.270 adjusted 0.270, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 3/1 Hit
76% FJ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
75% Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 1+· hits 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Hunter Goodman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake McCarthy Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ TJ Rumfield Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Karros Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake McCarthy 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ TJ Rumfield 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ TJ Rumfield Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Karros RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Karros Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ TJ Rumfield RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Tovar RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake McCarthy Hits 2+· hits 2+ TJ Rumfield Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Hunter Goodman HR· HR 1+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 2+· hits 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar HR· HR 1+ Run line4 San Diego Padres away +1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home +1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres away -1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home -1.5· Run Line games6 San Diego Padres Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.547 (away 82-68) vs home 55-95 0.367, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 8/8 Hit
63% San Diego Padres team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.367 (home 55-95) vs away 82-68 0.547, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 7/9 Miss
37% Colorado Rockies team runs Over 4.5· Runs strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
