San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies — Game center Final MLB
Sep 16 (Wed) · 12:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate San Diego Padres 63%
Colorado Rockies 37%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.543 (away 82-69) vs home 56-95 0.371, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Diego Padres Colorado Rockies
Pitching matchup
WB Walker Buehler Appearance confirmed
KF Kyle Freeland Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Partly Cloudy 72°F· wind 4 mph, R To L· park factor runs 112· HR 110
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 78%
Model probability
hits 1/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296· BvP 8/33 adjusted 0.307, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+5.3%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 72°F 4 mph, R To L Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.309 (139PA) Statcast xBA 0.296 (actual 0.289, underrated 7p) BvP career 8/33 (.242, K 5·HR 2) → weight 14% Hits 1+· hits 1+ 78%
Model probability
hits 2/1 Hit View model reasoning Season AVG 0.254 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.270 adjusted 0.301, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.344
+10.8%p Statcast xBA
0.270 (actual 0.254)
+0.7%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 72°F 4 mph, R To L Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) last 15G AVG 0.344 ↑ vs LHP AVG 0.280 (175PA) Statcast xBA 0.270 (actual 0.254, underrated 16p) Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
batter77 FJ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296· BvP 8/33 adjusted 0.307, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 1/1 Hit
78% JM Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.254 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.270 adjusted 0.301, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 2/1 Hit
78% Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 1+· hits 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 1+· hits 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Hunter Goodman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Hunter Goodman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ TJ Rumfield Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake McCarthy Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ TJ Rumfield 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ TJ Rumfield Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake McCarthy 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Kyle Karros 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ TJ Rumfield RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Tovar 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ezequiel Tovar RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 2+· hits 2+ TJ Rumfield Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman HR· HR 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 2+· hits 2+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ Jake McCarthy HR· HR 1+ Run line4 San Diego Padres away +1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home +1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres away -1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home -1.5· Run Line games6 San Diego Padres Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.543 (away 82-69) vs home 56-95 0.371, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 3/10 Miss
63% San Diego Padres team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.371 (home 56-95) vs away 82-69 0.543, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 9/4 Hit
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
