San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies — Game center Final MLB
Sep 17 (Thu) · 12:40 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate San Diego Padres 64%
Colorado Rockies 36%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season win% 0.546 (away 83-69) vs home 56-96 0.368, matchup combination after the away discount
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Matchup Box score
San Diego Padres Colorado Rockies
Pitching matchup
RR Robbie Ray Appearance confirmed
MA Mason Adams Appearance confirmed
Recent form · newest first
Cloudy 74°F· wind 13 mph, In From LF· park factor runs 112· HR 110
Data source: MLB Stats API
Hits 1+· hits 1+ 73%
Model probability
hits 0/1 Miss View model reasoning Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
What moved this probability
Recent form
last 15G AVG 0.333
+5.3%p Park Runs 112 / HR 110 74°F 13 mph, In From LF Colorado Rockies 7 OUT (Willi Castro …) San Diego Padres 8 OUT (Rodolfo Duran …) last 15G AVG 0.333 ↑ vs RHP AVG 0.283 (487PA) Statcast xBA 0.296 (actual 0.289, underrated 7p) Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Explore the models All Players Game
Run line4 San Diego Padres away +1.5· Run Line High
probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
75% Colorado Rockies home +1.5· Run Line San Diego Padres away -1.5· Run Line Colorado Rockies home -1.5· Run Line batter77 FJ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 1+· hits 1+ High
Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied
hits 0/1 Miss
73% Ty France Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jackson Merrill Hits 1+· hits 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 1+· hits 1+ Manny Machado Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 1+· hits 1+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 1+· hits 1+ Hunter Goodman Hits 1+· hits 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 1+· hits 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 1+· hits 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 1+· hits 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jackson Merrill RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Xander Bogaerts Walks 1+· walks 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ TJ Rumfield Walks 1+· walks 1+ Manny Machado Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ty France 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Kyle Karros Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Manny Machado Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Hits 2+· hits 2+ Fernando Tatis Jr. Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Hunter Goodman Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Ty France Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake McCarthy Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake Cronenworth 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth Walks 1+· walks 1+ Hunter Goodman 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Xander Bogaerts Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake McCarthy 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Hunter Goodman Walks 1+· walks 1+ TJ Rumfield 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jake Cronenworth Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake McCarthy RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Kyle Karros 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Ty France Walks 1+· walks 1+ Kyle Karros RBI 1+· RBI 1+ TJ Rumfield Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Kyle Karros Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ TJ Rumfield RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Ezequiel Tovar RBI 1+· RBI 1+ Manny Machado Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar 1+ Run Probability· runs 1+ Jackson Merrill Walks 1+· walks 1+ Xander Bogaerts Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Total Bases 2+· total bases 2+ Jake McCarthy Walks 1+· walks 1+ Ezequiel Tovar Walks 1+· walks 1+ Jake McCarthy Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake Cronenworth Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman Hits 2+· hits 2+ Hunter Goodman HR· HR 1+ Manny Machado HR· HR 1+ Ty France HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jackson Merrill HR· HR 1+ Fernando Tatis Jr. HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros Hits 2+· hits 2+ Ezequiel Tovar Hits 2+· hits 2+ Jake McCarthy HR· HR 1+ Xander Bogaerts HR· HR 1+ Kyle Karros HR· HR 1+ TJ Rumfield HR· HR 1+ Ezequiel Tovar HR· HR 1+ Jake Cronenworth HR· HR 1+ games6 San Diego Padres Away Team · Win Probability· Away Win High
season win% 0.546 (away 83-69) vs home 56-96 0.368, matchup combination after the away discount
runs 9/4 Hit
64% San Diego Padres team runs Over 4.5· Runs Both teams total runs Under 8.5· Totals Both teams total runs Over 8.5· Totals Colorado Rockies team runs Over 4.5· Runs Colorado Rockies Home Team · Win Probability· Home Win High
season win% 0.368 (home 56-96) vs away 83-69 0.546, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 8, matchup combination model
runs 3/10 Miss
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
